Evaluating historical simulations from global climate models (GCMs) remains an important exercise for better understanding future projections of climate change and variability in rapidly warming regions, such as the Arctic. As an alternative approach for comparing climate models and observations, we set up a machine learning classification task using a shallow artificial neural network (ANN). Specifically, we train an ANN on maps of annual mean near-surface temperature in the Arctic from a multi-model large ensemble archive in order to classify which GCM produced each temperature map. After training our ANN on data from the large ensembles, we input annual mean maps of Arctic temperature from observational reanalysis and sort the prediction output according to increasing values of the ANN’s confidence for each GCM class. To attempt to understand how the ANN is classifying each temperature map with a GCM, we leverage a feature attribution method from explainable artificial intelligence. By comparing composites from the attribution method for every GCM classification, we find that the ANN is learning regional temperature patterns in the Arctic that are unique to each GCM relative to the multi-model mean ensemble. In agreement with recent studies, we show that ANNs can be useful tools for extracting regional climate signals in GCMs and observations.

The coupled Atmospheric and Hydrological Modelling System (AHMS) combines a hydrological model (HMS) with the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) through the Noah-MP land surface scheme. This system is applied in offline mode to the hydrological processes in the Yellow River Basin which has been dramatically affected by intensive human activities over the past decades. In the earlier studies, the river water use for irrigation is often not considered, which is however an essential component of the water balance in the arid and semi-arid areas of the Yellow River Basin. Here, the channel routing model of the AHMS is extended to account for irrigation water taken from river. The irrigation water requirements are estimated based on the WATNEEDS model. AHMS is applied for the period 1979-2013 and the model results are compared with observations. It is found that for the upstream stations, the model simulated and observed streamflow are in good quantitative agreement. Comparison with the observed streamflow at the Huayuankou station near the outlet of the upper and the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin shows that the model performance improves significantly with the consideration of irrigation. For the entire Yellow River Basin, the AHMS is found to perform well with consideration of irrigation water consumption. The progress achieved in the present work demonstrates the capacity of the AHMS for long-term hydrological simulations in the Yellow River Basin and the AHMS simulation provide a comprehensive and quantitative overview of the water resources in this important river basin.

Evidence based on sparse tree-ring data suggests a severe sustained drought occurred in the 2nd century CE that could have rivaled medieval period droughts in the Colorado River basin (Gangopadhyay et al. 2022). Most of these tree-ring data have been used in gridded drought reconstructions (Cook et al., 2010) which extend back to 1 CE over an area that includes the intermountain western US. However, the 2nd century drought has not been highlighted in prior studies given the sparseness of the data available for this time period. A new reconstruction of Colorado River flow based on these data documents a notably severe and sustained drought over much of the 2nd century (Gangopadhyay et al. 2022). While this reconstruction suggests that the drought exceeds the severity and duration of any drought in the past 2000 years, a complete assessment of the 2nd century drought is challenging due to the sparseness of data. In this poster presentation, we describe the tree-ring data available, along with other proxy data that provide evidence for the 2nd century drought and support its severity. In our conclusions, we discuss outstanding questions and thoughts for further work.

Models and observations suggest that particle flux attenuation is lower across the mesopelagic zone of anoxic environments compared to oxic environments. Flux attenuation is controlled by microbial metabolism as well as aggregation and disaggregation by zooplankton, all of which also shape the relative abundance of differently sized particles. Observing and modeling particle spectra can provide information about the contributions of these processes. We measured particle size spectrum profiles at one station in the oligotrophic Eastern Tropical North Pacific Oxygen Deficient Zone (ETNP ODZ) using an underwater vision profiler (UVP), a high-resolution camera that counts and sizes particles. Measurements were taken at different times of day, over the course of a week. Comparing these data to particle flux measurements from sediment traps collected over the same time-period allowed us to constrain the particle size to flux relationship, and to generate highly resolved depth and time estimates of particle flux rates. We found that particle flux attenuated very little throughout the anoxic water column, and at some time-points appeared to increase. Comparing our observations to model predictions suggested that particles of all sizes remineralize more slowly in the ODZ than in oxic waters, and that large particles disaggregate into smaller particles, primarily between the base of the photic zone and 500 m. Acoustic measurements of multiple size classes of organisms suggested that many organisms migrated, during the day, to the region with high particle disaggregation. Our data suggest that diel-migrating organisms both actively transport biomass and disaggregate particles in the ODZ core.

An analysis of concurrent extreme events of continental precipitation and Integrated Water Vapour Transport (IVT) is crucial to our understanding of the role of the major global mechanisms of atmospheric moisture transport, including that of the landfalling Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in extratropical regions. For this purpose, gridded data on CPC precipitation and ERA-5 IVT at a spatial resolution of 0.5 º were used, covering the period from Winter 1980/1981 to Autumn 2017. For each season, and for each point with more than 400 non-dry days, several copula models were fitted to model the joint distribution function of the two variables. At each of the analysed points, the best copula model was used to estimate the probability of a concurrent extreme. At the same time, within the sample of observed concurrent extremes, the proportion of days with landfalling ARs was calculated for the whole period and for two 15-year subperiods, one earlier period and one more recent (warmer) period. Three metrics based on copulas were used to analyse carefully the influence of IVT on extreme precipitation in the main regions of occurrence of AR landfall. The results show that the probability of occurrence of concurrent extremes is strongly conditioned by the dynamic component of the IVT, the wind. The occurrence of landfalling ARs accounts for most of the concurrent extreme days of IVT and continental precipitation, with percentages of concurrent extreme days close to 90% in some seasons in almost all the known regions of maximum occurrence of landfalling ARs, and with percentages greater than 75% downwind of AR landfall regions. This coincidence was lower in tropical regions, and in monsoonal areas in particular, with percentages of less than 50%. With a few exceptions, the role of landfalling ARs as drivers of concurrent extremes of IVT and continental precipitation tends to show a decrease in recent (warmer) periods. For almost all the landfalling AR regions with high or very high probabilities of achieving a concurrent extreme, there is a general trend towards a lower influence of IVT on extreme continental precipitation in recent (warmer) periods.

Subsurface sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) requires long-term monitoring of the injected CO2 plume to prevent CO2 leakage along the wellbore or across the caprock. Accurate knowledge of the location and movement of the injected CO2 is crucial for risk management at a geological CO2-storage complex. Conventional methods for locating/assessing the injected CO2 plume in the subsurface assume a geophysical model, which is specific and may not be applicable to all types of CO2-injection reservoirs and scenarios. We developed an unsupervised-learning-based visualization of the subsurface CO2 plume that adapts and scales based on the data without requiring an assumption of the geophysical model. The data-processing workflow was applied to the cross-well tomography data from the SECARB Cranfield carbon geo-sequestration project. A multi-level clustering approach was developed to account for data imbalance due to the absence of CO2 in the large portion of the imaged reservoir. The first level of clustering differentiated CO2-bearing regions from the non-CO2 bearing regions and achieved a silhouette score of 0.85, a Calinski-Harabasz index of 160666, and a Davies-Bouldin index of 0.43, which are indicative of high quality, reliable clustering. The second level of clustering further differentiated the CO2-bearing regions into regions containing low, medium, and high CO2 content. Overall, the multi-level clustering achieved a silhouette score, Calinski-Harabasz index, and Davies-Bouldin index of 0.74, 59656, and 0.32, which confirm the high quality and reliability of the newly proposed unsupervised-learning-based visualization. Three distinct clustering techniques, namely k-means, mean-shift, and agglomerative, generated similar visualizations. In terms of the adjusted Rand index, the similarity of clusters identified by the three distinct clustering techniques is around 0.98, which indicates the robustness of the cluster labels assigned to various regions of the CO2-injection reservoir. Further, we find certain geophysical signatures, such as Fourier transform and wavelet transform, to be highly relevant and informative indicators of the spatial distribution of CO2 content.

For decades, the Arctic has been warming at least twice as fast as the rest of the globe. As a first step towards quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic feedbacks, we perform a variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully-coupled, ultra-low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). The study randomly draws 139 realizations of ten model parameters spanning three E3SMv1 components (sea ice, atmosphere and ocean), which are used to generate 75 year long projections of future climate using a fixed pre-industrial forcing. We quantify the sensitivity of six Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs) to these parameters using main effect, total effect and Sobol sensitivity indices computed with a Gaussian process emulator. A sensitivity index-based ranking of model parameters shows that the atmospheric parameters in the CLUBB (Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals) scheme have significant impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. We also use the Gaussian process emulator to predict the response of varying each variable when the impact of other parameters are averaged out. These results allow one to assess the non-linearity of a parameter’s impact on a QOI and investigate the presence of local minima encountered during the spin-up tuning process. Our study confirms the necessity of performing global analyses involving fully-coupled climate models, and motivates follow-on investigations in which the ULR model is compared rigorously to higher resolution configurations to confirm its viability as a lower-cost surrogate in fully-coupled climate uncertainty analyses.

Vegetation is an important component of terrestrial ecosystem as it supports other biological activities through the photosynthetic production. The biophysical and biochemical parameters of vegetation retrieved from satellite observations have been used extensively in studying the physiological states and growing conditions of vegetation that enabling global vegetation monitoring. Most of vegetation remote sensing applications using data from MODIS, Landsat, and Sentinel, though it would be beneficial, from the user perspective, to have an even more diverse data sources that not only secure data sustainability in case satellite retirement or sensor failure, but also enables research opportunities such as multi-sensor data fusion/integration and multi-angle remote sensing that can take advantage of observations acquired from different spaceborne sensors. In this regard, it would be worth to explore the potential of the large number of Chinese Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) that have been put into orbit over past decade. Here we summarized the recent advances in applying CEOS remote sensing of vegetation and its associated applications. We focused on the uncertainty and limitations for retrieving several commonly-used vegetation parameters by critically examining the case studies conducted over different vegetation types. Suggestions for research opportunities that can benefit from the additional data from CEOS are also provided. The hope is to provide the community an overview of what could be useful to their specific ecological, environmental and global change studies by leveraging the growing data volume from the orbiting CEOS sensors.

Survey evidence has indicated that a significant percentage of the population does not fully embrace the scientific consensus regarding climate change. This paper assesses whether the hourly temperature data support this denial. Specifically, this paper examines the relationship between hourly CO2 atmospheric concentration levels and temperature using hourly data from the NOAA-operated Barrow observatory in northern Alaska. At this observatory, the average annual temperature over the 2015-2020 period has been about 3.37 oC higher than in the 1985-1990 period. A time-series model to explain hourly temperature is formulated using the following explanatory variables: the hourly level of total downward solar irradiance, the hourly CO2 value lagged by one hour, proxies for the diurnal variation in temperature, proxies for the seasonal temperature variation, and proxies for possible non-anthropomorphic drivers of temperature. A time-series modeling specification is employed to capture the data’s heteroskedastic and autoregressive nature. The model is estimated using hourly data from 1 Jan 1985 through 31 Dec 2015. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that increases in CO2 concentration levels have nontrivial consequences for hourly temperature. The estimated annual contributions of factors exclusive of CO2 and downward total solar irradiance are very small. The model was evaluated using out-of-sample hourly data from 1 Jan 2016 through 31 Aug 2017. The model’s out-of-sample hourly temperature predictions are highly accurate, but this accuracy is significantly degraded if the estimated CO2 effects are ignored. In short, the results are consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change.

Simulation models of multi-sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi-sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single- and multi-sector systems. Here we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi-sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (1) inference and model calibration; (2) projecting future outcomes; and (3) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi-sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

Moisture recycling via evapotranspiration (ET) is often invoked as a mechanism for the high deuterium excess signals observed in continental precipitation (dP). However, a global-scale analysis of precipitation monitoring station isotope data shows that metrics of ET contributions to precipitation (van der Ent et al., 2014) explain little dp variability on seasonal timescales. This occurs despite the fact that ET contributions increase by ~50% in continental locations such as the Eurasian interior from wet to dry seasons. To explain this apparent paradox, we hypothesize that the effects of ET on dP are dampened during dry seasons due to contributions from isotopically-evolved residual water storage that act to lower the d-excess of ET fluxes (dET), in combination with changes in transpiration fraction (T/ET). To test this hypothesis, we develop a parsimonious two-season (wet, dry) model for dET incorporating residual water storage and ET partitioning effects. We find that in environments with limited water storage, such as shallow-rooted grasslands, dry season dET is lower than wet season dET despite lower relative humidity. As global average ratios of annual water storage to precipitation are relatively low (Guntner et al., 2007), these dynamics may be widespread over continents. In environments where water storage is not limiting, such as groundwater-dependent ecosystems, dry season dET is still likely lower; however, this effect arises instead due to higher seasonal T/ET when energy-driven plant water use is enhanced and surface evaporation is relatively limited by water availability. Together, these analyses also indicate multiple mechanisms by which dET may be lower than dp during the same season, challenging the view that moisture recycling feedback increases the dp in continental interiors. This work demonstrates the potential complexity of seasonal dp dynamics and cautions against simple interpretations of dP as a process tracer for moisture recycling. References: Guntner et al., 2007. Water Resour. Res., 43, W05416. van der Ent et al., 2014. Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 471–489.

Mangrove forests are among the most productive ecosystems in the world. These tropical and subtropical coastal forests provide a wide array of ecosystem services, including the ability to sequester and store large amounts of ‘blue carbon’. Given rising concerns over anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, mangrove forests have been increasingly recognized for their potential in climate change mitigation programs. However, their productivity differs considerably across environments, making it difficult to estimate carbon sequestration potentials at regional scales. Additionally, most research has focused in humid and tropical latitudes, with limited studies in arid and semi-arid regions. A semi-arid mangrove forest in Magdalena Bay, Baja California Sur, Mexico was studied to quantify the average net ecosystem exchange (NEE), determine the annual carbon (C) budget and the environmental controls driving those fluxes. Measurements were taken during 2012-2013 using the eddy covariance technique, with a daily mean NEE of -2.25 ±0.4 g C m-2 d-1 and annual carbon uptake of 894 g C m-2 y-1. Daily variations in NEE were primarily regulated by light, but air temperature and vapor pressure deficit were strong seasonal drivers. Our research demonstrates that despite the harsh and arid climate, the mangroves of Magdalena Bay were nearly as productive as mangroves found in tropical and subtropical climates. These results broaden understanding of the ecosystem services of one of the largest mangrove ecosystems in the Baja California peninsula, and highlight the potential role of arid mangrove ecosystems for C accounting, management and mitigation plans for the region.

Concerns about water security often inform climate risk-related decisions made by environmentally focused investors (Porritt, 2001; Stern, 2006). Yet, potential liabilities for damage caused by extreme flood and drought events linked to global warming present risks that are not always reflected in share prices (Krosinsky et al., 2012). Considering the highly destructive nature of such events, we query whether companies, or specific sectors, could and should be held at least partially liable for their emission-releasing business activities. Recent articles (Rayer & Millar, 2018; Rayer et al., 2020) estimate that under a hypothetical climate liability regime, North Atlantic hurricane seasons might increasingly generate 1-2% losses on market capitalizations (or share prices) for the top seven carbon-emitting, publicly listed companies. In this paper, we extend the concept of the climate liability regime to estimate the impact of global flood- and drought-related damages on the share prices of nine fossil-fuel firms (including the seven mentioned by Rayer et al. (2020)). Following Rayer et al. (2020), we use incremental climate impacts and historical corporate emissions to estimate that climate change-related global flood and drought damages for the period of 2012 to 2016 amount to approximately 2-3% of the top nine carbon-emitting companies’ market capitalizations. We also include a discussion of moral responsibility and the proportion of obligations between producers and users. Quantifying impacts from extreme weather events increases salience and serves as an example of how science can identify and address the important business questions, pertinent to both investors and companies, that arise from a changing climate. References Krosinsky, C., Robins, N., & Viederman, S. (2012). Evolutions in sustainable investing. John Wiley & Sons. Porritt, J. (2001). The world in context. HRH The Prince of Wales’ Business and the Environment Programme, Cambridge. Rayer, Q. G., & Millar, R. J. (2018). Investing in Extreme Weather Conditions. Citywire Wealth Manager®, (429) 36. Rayer, Q., Pfleiderer, P., & Haustein, K. (2020). Global Warming and Extreme Weather Investment Risks. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38858-4_3 Stern, N. (2006). Stern Review executive summary. London.

Construction with freeboard – vertical height of a structure above the minimum required – is commonly accepted as a sound investment for flood hazard mitigation. However, determining the optimal height of freeboard poses a major decision problem. This research introduces a life-cycle benefit-cost analysis (LCBCA) approach for optimizing freeboard height for a new, single-family residence, while incorporating uncertainty, and, in the case of insured homes, considering the costs from losses, insurance, and freeboard (if any) to the homeowner and National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) separately. Using a hypothetical, case study home in Metairie, Louisiana, results show that adding 2 ft. of freeboard at the time of construction might be considered the optimal option given that it yields the highest net benefit, but the highest net benefit-cost ratio occurs for the 1 ft. freeboard. Even if flood loss reduction is not considered when adding freeboard, the savings in annual insurance premiums alone are sufficient to recover the construction costs paid by the homeowner if at least one foot of freeboard is included at construction. Collectively, these results based on conservative assumptions suggest that at the time of construction, even a small amount of freeboard provides a huge savings for the homeowner and (especially) for the financially-strapped NFIP. For community planners, the results suggest that wise planning with reasonable expectations on the front end makes for a more sustainable community.

The discipline of land change science has been evolving rapidly in the past decades. Remote sensing played a major role in one of the essential components of land change science, which includes observation, monitoring, and characterization of land change. In this paper, we proposed a new framework of the multifaceted view of land change through the lens of remote sensing and recommended five facets of land change including change location, time, target, metric, and agent. We also evaluated the impacts of spatial, spectral, temporal, angular, and data-integration domains of the remotely sensed data on observing, monitoring, and characterization of different facets of land change, as well as discussed some of the current land change products. We recommend clarifying the specific land change facet being studied in remote sensing of land change, reporting multiple or all facets of land change in remote sensing products, shifting the focus from land cover change to specific change metric and agent, integrating social science data and multi-sensor datasets for a deeper and fuller understanding of land change, and recognizing limitations and weaknesses of remote sensing in land change studies.

Climate models generally project an increase in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index under a future high emissions scenario, alongside an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe. The extent to which future forced NAO trends are important for European winter precipitation trends and their uncertainty remains unclear. We show using the Multimodel Large Ensemble Archive that the NAO plays a small role in northern European mean winter precipitation projections for 2080-2099. Conversely, half of the model uncertainty in southern European mean winter precipitation projections is potentially reducible through improved understanding of the NAO. Extreme positive NAO winters increase in frequency in most models, coincident with mean NAO changes. These extremes also have more severe future precipitation impacts, largely because of background mean precipitation changes. This has implications for future resilience to extreme positive NAO winters, which already can have severe societal impacts.

We present a Python package geared towards the intuitive analysis and visualization of paleoclimate timeseries, Pyleoclim. The code is open-source, object-oriented, and built upon the standard scientific Python stack, allowing to take advantage of a large collection of existing and emerging techniques. We describe the code’s philosophy, structure and base functionalities, and apply it to three paleoclimate problems: (1) orbital-scale climate variability in a deep-sea core, illustrating spectral, wavelet and coherency analysis in the presence of age uncertainties; (2) correlating a high-resolution speleothem to a climate field, illustrating correlation analysis in the presence of various statistical pitfalls (including age uncertainties); (3) model-data confrontations in the frequency domain, illustrating the characterization of scaling behavior. We show how the package may be used for transparent and reproducible analysis of paleoclimate and paleoceanographic datasets, supporting FAIR software and an open science ethos. The package is supported by an extensive documentation and a growing library of tutorials shared publicly as videos and cloud-executable Jupyter notebooks, to encourage adoption by new users.

In Mongolia, overuse and degradation of groundwater is a serious issue, mainly in the urban and economic hub, Ulaanbaatar, and the Southern Gobi mining hub. In order to explicitly quantify spatio-temporal variations in water availability, a process-based eco-hydrology model, NICE (National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology) (Nakayama and Watanabe, 2004), was applied to two contrasting river basins including these hubs. The authors built a high-resolution grid data representing water use for livestock, urban populations, and mining by combining a global dataset, statistical data, GIS data, observation data, and field surveys. The model simulated the effects of climatic change and human-induced disturbances on water resources during 1980-2018 (Nakayama et al., 2021). Although drinking by herders’ livestock had some impact on the hydrologic change, the groundwater level in the Tuul River was shown to have been extremely degraded by water use in Ulaanbaatar over the last few decades whereas that in the Galba River has declined markedly as a result of Oyu Tolgoi mining since 2010. Analysis of the relative contribution of environmental factors also helped us to separate the effects of climatic change and human activities on spatio-temporal change in the groundwater level. Further, they extended NICE to couple with inverse method for sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of anthropogenic water uses (NICE-INVERSE). This new model quantified the spatio-temporal variations of livestock water use in these river basins (Nakayama, et al., in press). The livestock water use was generally small for each soum (district), and could also be heavily returned back to the ecosystems. The result also showed a temporal decreasing trend of unit water use in some typical livestock (cattle, sheep, and goats), suggesting a substantial increase in water stress due to local-regional eco-hydrological degradation by urbanization and mining. Sensitivity analysis and inverse estimation of model parameters helped to improve the accuracy of hydrologic budgets in basins. This methodology is powerful for evaluating spatio-temporal variations of water availability and supporting water management in regions with fewer inventory data.

Accurate flood inundation modelling using a complex high-resolution hydrodynamic (high-fidelity) model can be very computationally demanding. To address this issue, efficient approximation methods (surrogate models) have been developed. Despite recent developments, there remain significant challenges in using surrogate methods for modelling the dynamical behaviour of flood inundation in an efficient manner. Most methods focus on estimating the maximum flood extent due to the high spatial-temporal dimensionality of the data. This study presents a hybrid surrogate model, consisting of a low-resolution hydrodynamic (low-fidelity) and a Sparse Gaussian Process (Sparse GP) model, to capture the dynamic evolution of the flood extent. The low-fidelity model is computationally efficient but has reduced accuracy compared to a high-fidelity model. To account for the reduced accuracy, a Sparse GP model is used to correct the low-fidelity modelling results. To address the challenges posed by the high dimensionality of the data from the low- and high-fidelity models, Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis is applied to reduce the spatial-temporal data into a few key features. This enables training of the Sparse GP model to predict high-fidelity flood data from low-fidelity flood data, so that the hybrid surrogate model can accurately simulate the dynamic flood extent without using a high-fidelity model. The hybrid surrogate model is validated on the flat and complex Chowilla floodplain in Australia. The hybrid model was found to improve the results significantly compared to just using the low-fidelity model and incurred only 39% of the computational cost of a high-fidelity model.

Chemical and biological composition of surface materials and physical structure and arrangement of those materials determine the intrinsic spectral reflectance of Earth’s land surface at the plot scale. As measured by a spaceborne or airborne sensor, the apparent reflectance depends on the intrinsic reflectance, the surface texture, the contribution and attenuation by the atmosphere, and the topography. Compensation or correction for the topographic effect requires information in digital elevation models (DEMs). Available DEMs with global coverage at ~30 m spatial resolution are derived from interferometric radar and stereo-photogrammetry. Locally or regionally, airborne lidar altimetry, airborne interferometric radar, or stereo-photogrammetry from airborne or fine-resolution satellite imagery produces DEMs with finer spatial resolutions. Characterization of the quality of DEMs typically expresses the root-mean-square (RMS) error of the elevation, but the accuracy of remote sensing retrievals is acutely sensitive to uncertainties in the topographic properties that affect the illumination geometry. The essential variables are the cosine of the local illumination angle and the shadows cast by neighboring terrain. We show that calculations with globally available DEMs underrepresent shadows and consistently underestimate the values of the cosine of illumination angle; the RMS error increases with solar zenith angle and in more rugged terrain. Analyzing imagery of Earth’s mountains from current and future missions requires addressing the uncertainty introduced by errors in DEMs on algorithms that estimate surface properties from retrievals of the apparent spectral reflectance. Intriguing potential improvements lie in novel methods to gain information about topography from the imagery itself.

Earth System Models’ complex land components simulate a patchwork of increases and decreases in surface water availability when driven by projected future climate changes. Yet, commonly-used simple theories for surface water availability, such as the Aridity Index (P/E0) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), obtain severe, globally dominant drying when driven by those same climate changes, leading to disagreement among published studies. In this work, we use a common modeling framework to show that ESM simulated runoff-ratio and soil-moisture responses become much more consistent with the P/E0 and PDSI responses when several previously known factors that the latter do not account for are cut out of the simulations. This reconciles the disagreement and makes the full ESM responses more understandable. For ESM runoff ratio, the most important factor causing the more positive global response compared to P/E0 is the concentration of precipitation in time with greenhouse warming. For ESM soil moisture, the most important factor causing the more positive global response compared to PDSI is the effect of increasing carbon dioxide on plant physiology, which also drives most of the spatial variation in the runoff ratio enhancement. The effect of increasing vapor-pressure deficit on plant physiology is a key secondary factor for both. Future work will assess the utility of both the ESMs and the simple indices for understanding observed, historical trends.

The predicted Antarctic contribution to global-mean sea-level rise is one of the most uncertain among all major sources. Partly this is because of instability mechanisms of the ice flow over deep basins. Errors in bedrock topography can substantially impact the projected resilience of glaciers against such instabilities. Here we analyze the Pine Island Glacier topography to derive a statistical model representation. Our model allows for inhomogeneous and spatially dependent uncertainties and avoids unnecessary smoothing from spatial averaging or interpolation. A set of topography realizations is generated representing our best estimate of the topographic uncertainty in ice sheet model simulations. The bedrock uncertainty alone creates a 5% to 25% uncertainty in the predicted sea level rise contribution at year 2100, depending on friction law and climate forcing. Pine Island Glacier simulations on this new set are consistent with simulations on the BedMachine reference topography but diverge from Bedmap2 simulations.

Increasing ice flux from glaciers retreating over deepening bed topography has been implicated in the recent acceleration of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We show in observations that some glaciers have remained at peaks in bed topography without retreating despite enduring significant changes in climate. Observations also indicate that some glaciers which persist at bed peaks undergo sudden retreat years or decades after the onset of local ocean or atmospheric warming. Using model simulations, we show that glacier persistence may lead to two very different futures: one where glaciers persist at bed peaks indefinitely, and another where glaciers retreat from the bed peak suddenly without a concurrent climate forcing. However, it is difficult to distinguish which of these two futures will occur from current observations. We conclude that inferring glacier stability from observations of persistence obscures our true commitment to future sea-level rise under climate change.

The tandem rise in satellite-based observations and computing power has changed the way we (can) see rivers across the Earth’s surface. Global datasets of river and river network characteristics at unprecedented resolutions are becoming common enough that the sheer amount of available information presents problems itself. Fully exploiting this new knowledge requires linking these geospatial datasets to each other within the context of a river network. In order to cope with this wealth of information, we are developing Veins of the Earth (VotE), a flexible system designed to synthesize knowledge about rivers and their networks into an adaptable and readily-usable form. VotE is not itself a dataset, but rather a database of relationships linking existing datasets that allows for rapid comparison and exports of river networks at arbitrary resolutions. VotE’s underlying river network (and drainage basins) is extracted from MERIT-Hydro. We link within VotE a newly-compiled dam dataset, streamflow gages from the GRDC, and published global river network datasets characterizing river widths, slopes, and intermittency. We highlight VotE’s utility with a demonstration of how vector-based river networks can be exported at any requested resolution, a global comparison of river widths from three independent datasets, and an example of computing watershed characteristics by coupling VotE to Google Earth Engine. Future efforts will focus on including real-time datasets such as SWOT river discharges and ReaLSAT reservoir areas.