Salt marshes are ecosystems with significant economic and environmental value. With accelerating rate in sea-level rise, it is not clear whether salt marshes will be able to retain their resilience. Field and numerical investigations have shown that storms play a significant role in marsh accretion and that they might be crucial to salt marsh survival to sea-level rise. Here we present the results from two studies (Pannozzo et al., 2021a,b; Pannozzo et al., 2022) that used numerical and field investigations to quantify the impact of storm surges on the sediment budget of salt marshes within different sea-level scenarios and to investigate how sediment transport pathways determine marsh response to storm sediment input. The Ribble Estuary, North-West England, was used as a test case. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D was used to simulate the estuary morpho-dynamics under selected storm surge and sea-level scenarios. In addition, sediment samples collected with a monthly frequency from different areas of the marsh were analysed with sediments collected from possible sources to integrate field observations with the numerical investigation of sediment transport pathways during stormy and non-stormy conditions. Results showed that, although sea-level rise threatens the estuary and marsh stability by promoting ebb dominance and triggering a net export of sediment, storm surges promote flood dominance and trigger a net import of sediment, increasing the resilience of the estuary and salt marsh to sea-level rise, with the highest surges having the potential to offset sea-level effects on sediment transport and sediment budget of the system. However, although storm sediment input resulted to be significant for the accretion of the marsh platform and particularly for the marsh interior, data showed that storms mainly remobilise sediments already present in the intertidal system and only to a minor extent transport new sediment from external sources.ReferencesPannozzo N. et al., 2021. Salt marsh resilience to sea-level rise and increased storm intensity. Geomorphology, 389 (4): 107825.Pannozzo N. et al., 2021. Dataset of results from numerical simulations of increased storm intensity in an estuarine salt marsh system. Data in Brief, 38 (6): 107336.Pannozzo N. et al., 2022. Sediment transport pathways determine the sensitivity of salt marshes to storm sediment input. In preparation.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific is the dominant mode of global air-sea CO2 flux interannual variability (IAV). Air-sea CO2 fluxes are driven by the difference between atmospheric and surface ocean pCO2, with variability of the latter driving flux variability. Previous studies found that models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) failed to reproduce the observed ENSO-related pattern of CO2 fluxes and had weak pCO2 IAV, which were explained by both weak upwelling IAV and weak mean vertical DIC gradients. We assess whether the latest generation of CMIP6 models can reproduce equatorial Pacific pCO2 IAV by validating models against observations-based data products. We decompose pCO2 IAV into thermally and non-thermally driven anomalies to examine the balance between these competing anomalies, which explain the total pCO2 IAV. The majority of CMIP6 models underestimate pCO2 IAV, while they overestimate SST IAV. Thermal and non-thermal pCO2 anomalies are not appropriately balanced in models, such that the resulting pCO2 IAV is too weak. We compare the relative strengths of the vertical transport of temperature and DIC and evaluate their contributions to thermal and non-thermal pCO2 anomalies. Model-to-observations-based product comparisons reveal that modeled mean vertical DIC gradients are biased weak relative to their mean vertical temperature gradients, but upwelling acting on these gradients is insufficient to explain the relative magnitudes of thermal and non-thermal pCO2 anomalies.

Using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data and numerical simulations, the impacts of the multi-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific on the boreal winter atmospheric circulations are investigated. The basin-scale SST anomaly as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) pattern, a narrow meridional band of frontal-scale smoothed SST anomaly in the subtropical front zone (STFZ) and the spatial dispersed eddy-scale SST anomalies within the STFZ are the three types of forcings. The results of Liang-Kleeman information flow method find that all three oceanic forcings may correspond to the winter North Pacific jet changing with the similar pattern. Furthermore, several simulations are used to reveal the differences and detail processes of the three forcings. The basin-scale cold PDO-pattern SST anomaly first causes negative turbulent heat flux anomalies, atmospheric cooling, and wind deceleration in the lower atmosphere. Subsequently, the cooling temperature with an amplified southern lower temperature gradient and baroclinity brings a lagging middle warming because of the enhanced atmospheric eddy heat transport. The poleward and upward development of baroclinic fluctuations eventually causes the acceleration of the upper jet. The smoothed frontal- and eddy-scale SST anomalies in the STFZ cause comparable anomalous jet as the basin-scale by changing the upward baroclinic energy and E-P fluxes. The forcing effects of multi-scale SST anomalies coexist simultaneously in the mid-latitude North Pacific, which can cause similar anomalous upper atmospheric circulations. This is probably why it is tricky to define the certain oceanic forcing that leads to specific atmospheric circulation variation in observations

We developed a storm surge Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Goro lagoon (GOLFEM-EPS) in the Northern Adriatic Sea. The lagoon is threatened every year by storm surge events with consequent risks for human life and economic losses. We show the advantages and limitations of an EPS with 45 members, using a very high-resolution unstructured grid finite element model. For five recent storm surge events, the EPS generally improves the forecast skill on the third forecast day compared to just one deterministic forecast, while they are similar in the first two days. A weighting system is implemented to compute an improved ensemble mean. The uncertainties regarding sea level due to meteorological forcing, river run-off, initial and lateral boundaries are evaluated, and the different forecasts are used to compose the EPS members. We conclude that the largest uncertainty is in the initial and lateral boundary fields at different time and space scales, including the tidal components.

Manganese (Mn) is an essential element for photosynthetic life, yet concentrations in Southern Ocean open waters are very low, resulting from biological uptake along with limited external inputs. At southern latitudes, waters overlying the Antarctic shelf are expected to have much higher Mn concentrations due to their proximity to external sources such as sediment and sea ice. In this study, we investigated the potential export of Mn-rich Antarctic shelf waters toward depleted open Southern Ocean waters. Our results showed that while high Mn concentrations were observed over the shelf, strong biological uptake decreased dissolved Mn concentrations in surface waters north of the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (< 0.1 nM), limiting export of shelf Mn to the open Southern Ocean. Conversely, in bottom waters, mixing between Mn-rich Antarctic Bottom Waters and Mn-depleted Low Circumpolar Deep Waters combined with scavenging processes led to a decrease in dissolved Mn concentrations with distance from the coast. Subsurface dissolved Mn maxima represented a potential reservoir for surface waters (0.3 – 0.6 nM). However, these high subsurface values decreased with distance from the coast, suggesting these features may result from external sources near the shelf in addition to particle remineralization. Overall, these results imply that the lower-than-expected lateral export of trace metal-enriched waters contributes to the extremely low (< 0.1 nM) and potentially co-limiting Mn concentrations previously reported further north in this Southern Ocean region.

One of the most prominent plate tectonic processes is seafloor spreading. But its formation processes are poorly understood. In this study, we thoroughly address how the brittle-ductile weakening process affects the formation and development of tectonic patterns at spreading centers using 3D magmatic-thermomechanical numerical models. Grain size evolution and brittle/plastic strain weakening are fully coupled into the model. A spectrum of tectonic patterns, from asymmetric long-lived detachment faults in rolling-hinge mode, short-lived detachment faults in flip-flop mode, to symmetric conjugate faults in flip-flop mode are documented in our models. Systematic numerical results indicate that fault strength reduction and axial brittle layer thickness are two pivotal factors in controlling the faulting patterns and spreading modes. Strain weakening induced by localized hydrothermal alteration can lead to the variation of the fault strength reduction. Strong strain weakening with large fault strength reduction results in very asymmetric detachment faults developing in rolling-hinge mode, while weak strain weakening leads to small fault strength reduction, forming conjugate faults. Moreover, the thermal structure beneath the ridge is influenced by spreading rates, hydrothermal circulation, and mantle potential temperature, which in turn controls the thickness of the axial brittle layer and results in variation in tectonic patterns. Further, in order to test a damage mechanism with a physical basis, we investigate grain size reduction at the root of detachment faults. We found that its effect in the formation of detachment faults appears to play a subordinate role compared to brittle/plastic strain weakening of faults.

The Subpolar North Atlantic plays a critical role in the formation of the deep water masses which drive Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Labrador Sea Water (LSW) is formed in the Labrador Sea and exported predominantly via the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). The DWBC is an essential component of the AMOC advecting deep waters southward, flowing at depth along the continental slope of the western Atlantic. By combining sustained hydrographic observations from the Labrador Sea, Line W, Bermuda basin, and offshore of Abaco Island along 26.5°N, we investigate the signal propagation and advective timescales of LSW via the DWBC from its source region to the Tropical Atlantic through various approaches using robust neutral density classifications. Two individually-defined LSW classes are observed to advect on timescales that support a new plausible hydrographically-observed advective pathway. We find each LSW class to advect on independent timescales, and validate a hypothesized alternative-interior advection pathway branching from the DWBC by observing LSW outside of the DWBC in the Bermuda basin just prior to or on the same timescale as at 26.5°N- 10-15 years after leaving the source region. Advective timescales estimated herein indicate that this interior pathway is likely the main advective pathway; it remains uncertain whether a direct pathway plays a significant advective role. Using LSW convective signals as advective tracers along the DWBC permits the estimation of advective timescales from the subpolar to tropical latitudes, illuminating deep water advection pathways across the North Atlantic and the lower-limb of AMOC as a whole.

A document by Elsa Arellano-Torres. Click on the document to view its contents.

As tsunamis propagate across open oceans, they remain largely unseen due to the lack of adequate sensors, hence limiting the scope of existing tsunami warnings. A potential alternative method relies on the Global Navigation Satellites Systems to monitor the ionosphere for Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances created by tsunami-induced internal gravity waves (IGWs). The approach has been applied to tsunamis generated by earthquakes but rarely by undersea volcanic eruptions injecting energy into both the ocean and the atmosphere. The large 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption tsunami is thus a challenge for tsunami ionospheric imprint detection. Here, we show that in near-field regions (<1500km), despite the complex wavefield, we can isolate the tsunami imprint. We also highlight that the eruption-generated Lamb wave’s ionospheric imprints show an arrival time and an amplitude spatial pattern consistent with internal gravity wave origin.

Previous studies have identified intense climatic change in the Southern Ocean. However, the response of ACC transport to climate change is not fully understood. In this study, by using in-situ ocean bottom pressure (OBP) records and five GRACE products, long-term variations of ACC transport are studied. Our results confirm the reliability of GRACE CSR mascon product in ACC transport estimation at the Drake Passage. Superimposed on interannual variability, ACC transport exhibits an obvious increasing trend (1.32±0.07Sv year-1) during the GRACE era. Based on results of a mass-conservation ocean model simulation, we suggest that the acceleration of ACC is associated with intensified westerly winds and loss of land ice in Antarctica.

We use the United Kingdom Earth System Model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 to analyse the dynamics of the Ross Gyre, West Antarctica, under historical and projected climate-change scenarios. During the historical period, the modelled Ross Gyre is relatively stable, with an extent and strength that are in reasonable agreement with observations. The projections exhibit an eastward gyre expansion into the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas that starts during the 2040s. The associated cyclonic ocean circulation enhances the onshore transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water into the eastern Amundsen Sea, a regime change that increases the subsurface shelf temperatures by up to 1.2◦C and is independent of future forcing scenario. The Ross Gyre expansion is generated by a regional surface stress curl intensification associated with anthropogenic forcing. If realised in reality, such a warming would strongly influence the future stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Fronts are ubiquitous in the climate system. In the Southern Ocean, fronts delineate water masses, which correspond to upwelling and downwelling branches of the overturning circulation. A robust understanding of Southern Ocean fronts is key to projecting future changes in overturning and the associated air-sea partitioning of heat and carbon. Classically, oceanographers define Southern Ocean fronts as a small number of continuous linear features that encircle Antarctica. However, modern observational and theoretical developments are challenging this traditional framework to accommodate more localized views of fronts [Chapman et al. 2020]. In this work, we present two related methods for calculating fronts from oceanographic data. The first method uses unsupervised classification (specifically, Gaussian Mixture Modeling or GMM) and an interclass metric to define fronts. This approach produces a discontinuous, probabilistic view of front location, emphasising the fact that the boundaries between water masses are not uniformly sharp across the entire Southern Ocean. The second method uses Sobel edge detection to highlight rapid changes [Hjelmervik & Hjelmervik, 2019]. This approach produces a more local view of fronts, with the advantage that it can highlight the movement of individual eddy-like features (such as the Agulhas rings). The fronts detected using the Sobel method are moderately correlated with the magnitude of the velocity field, which is consistent with the theoretically expected spatial coincidence of fronts and jets. We will present our python GitHub repository, which will allow researchers to easily apply these methods to their own datasets. Figure caption Two methods for interpretable front detection. Solid lines represent classical fronts. (a) The “inter-class” metric, which indicates the probability that a grid cell is a boundary between two classes. The classes are defined by GMM of principal component values (PCs) derived from both temperature and salinity. The different colors indicate different class boundaries. (b) Sobel edge detection: approximately the magnitude of the spatial gradient of the PCs divided by each field’s standard deviation, which highlights locations of rapid change.

An outreach presentation on the uses for measuring thorium in the marine environment, modeled after a children's book and presented at AGU Fall Meeting 2022 Up-Goer Five Challenge: Making Big Ideas Simpler by Talking About Them in Words We Use a Lot.Pictures by Neil Redmond and Midjourney AI

Coastlines in most ocean general circulation models are piecewise constant. Accurate representation of boundary currents along staircase-like coastlines is a long-standing issue in ocean modelling. Pioneering work by Adcroft and Marshall (1998) revealed that artificial indentation of model coastlines, obtained by rotating the numerical mesh within an idealized square basin, generates a \textit{spurious form drag} that slows down the circulation. Here, we revisit this problem and show how this spurious drag may be eliminated. First, we find that \textit{physical} convergence (i.e. the main characteristics of the flow are insensitive to the increase of the mesh resolution) allows simulations to become independent of the mesh orientation. An advection scheme with a wider stencil also reduces sensitivity to mesh orientation from coarser resolution. Second, we show that indented coastlines behave as straight and slippery shores when a true mirror boundary condition on the flow is imposed. This finding applies to both symmetric and rotational-divergence formulations of the stress tensor, and to both flux and vector-invariant forms of the equations. Finally, we demonstrate that the detachment of a vortex flowing past an outgoing corner of the coastline is faithfully simulated with exclusive implementation of impermeability conditions. These results provide guidance for a better numerical treatment of coastlines (and isobaths) in ocean general circulation models.

Because of its responsiveness to changes in the marine environment, it has been suggested by Rose in 2005 that the capelin, a small pelagic fish that is key to the ecology and fisheries of the North Atlantic, could be seen as a "canary in the coalmine" to detect signals of changes in the Arctic and sub-Arctic Ocean. We describe the historical data that make possible a quantitative assessment of the geographical shift capelin migration-paths and spawning grounds undergo, with increasing temperature, and the time it takes to make these shifts long-lasting. Then we introduce recent data that make these quantitative measurements more accurate and predictive. Direct measurements made in the fall expeditions of Iceland's Marine and Freshwater Research Institute along the East Coast of Greenland, and the Copernicus database of the European Union, are used to examine the evolution of the returning Atlantic water (from Svalbard) that is forming a warmer and saltier boundary current under the colder and fresher East Greenland polar current. The returning Atlantic water has a temperature range (1 to 4 degrees Centigrade) suitable for feeding migrations of the capelin. This current is reaching further north along the coast of North East Greenland and we use simulated data from Copernicus to monitor this evolution. We calibrate the Copernicus data with the direct measurements made by the Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, in Iceland. A trend emerges, both in the direct measurements and in Copernicus data, showing that the returning Atlantic water boundary current may reach Greenland's major Northeastern glacier streams, draining the bulk of the Greenland Glacier in the relatively near future We use the capelin data to predict when this may happen.

Waves, rivers, and tides play a leading role in shaping delta morphology. Recent studies have enabled predictions of their relative influence for deltas globally, but methods and associated uncertainties have remained poorly described. Here we aim to address that gap and assess the quality of delta morphology predictions compared to observations for 31 deltas globally. We expand on seminal works that quantified the Galloway ternary diagram from the balance between river, wave, and tidal sediment fluxes. Our data includes uncertainties for delta shoreline protrusion angles set by wave influence (14.1°±12° predicted vs. 20.8°±16.1° observed), channel widening, set by tidal influence (53.5±170.8 predicted vs. 6.5±11.5 observed), and number of distributary channels, set by river influence (55.9±127.5 predicted vs. 21.4±43.0 observed). Within the ternary diagram for delta morphology, we find an average error of 8% (±11%, 1 standard deviation), linked to uncertainties in wave and tide sediment fluxes. Relative uncertainties are greatest for mixed-process deltas (e.g., Sinu, error of 49%) and tend to decrease for end-member morphologies where either one of wave, tide, or river sediment fluxes dominates (e.g., Fly, error of 0.2%). Large sources of prediction uncertainties are (1) delta morphology data, e.g., delta slopes that modulate tidal fluxes, (2) data on river sediment flux distribution between individual delta river mouths, and (3) theoretical basis behind fluvial and tidal dominance. Future work could help address these three sources and improve predictions of delta morphology.

The current narrative of artificial upwelling (AU) is to use ocean pipes to pump nutrient rich deep water to the ocean surface, thereby stimulating the biological carbon pump. This simplistic concept of AU does not take the response of the solubility pump or the CO2 emission scenario into account. Using global ocean-atmosphere model experiments and several idealized model tracers we show that the effectiveness of almost globally applied AU from the year 2020 to 2100 to draw down CO2 from the atmosphere is strongly dependent on the CO2 emission scenario and ranges from 1.01 Pg C / year under RCP 8.5 to 0.32 Pg C / year under RCP 2.6. The solubility pump becomes equally effective compared to the biological carbon pump under the highest emission scenario (RCP 8.5), but responds with CO2 outgassing under low CO2emission scenarios.

The variability of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical large-scale circulation is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whose timescale is extensively used as a key metric in evaluating state-of-the-art climate models. Past observational and theoretical studies suggest that the SAM lacks any internally generated (intrinsic) periodicity. Here, we show, using observations and a climate model hierarchy, that the SAM has an intrinsic 150-day periodicity. This periodicity is robustly detectable in the power spectra and principal oscillation patterns (aka dynamical mode decomposition) of the zonal-mean circulation, and in hemispheric-scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. The 150-day period is consistent with the predictions of a new reduced-order model for the SAM, which suggests that this periodicity is tied with a complex interaction of turbulent eddies and zonal wind anomalies, as the latter propagate from low to high latitudes. These findings present a rare example of periodic oscillations arising from the internal dynamics of the extratropical turbulent circulations. Based on these findings, we further propose a new metric for evaluating climate models, and show that some of the previously reported shortcomings and improvements in simulating SAM’s variability connect to the models’ ability in reproducing this periodicity. We argue that this periodicity should be considered in evaluating climate models and understanding the past, current, and projected Southern Hemisphere climate variability.

Underwater fiber optic cables commonly traverse a variety of seafloor conditions, which leads to an uneven mechanical coupling between the cable and the ocean bottom. On rough seafloor bathymetry, some cable portions might be suspended and thus susceptible to Vortex-Induced Vibrations (VIV) driven by deep ocean currents. Here, we examine the potential of Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) to monitor deep-sea currents along suspended sections of underwater telecom fiber optic cables undergoing VIV. Oscillations of a seafloor fiber optic cable located in southern France are recorded by DAS along cable sections presumably hanging. Their characteristic frequencies are lower than 1 Hz, at different ocean depths, and have an amplitude-dependency consistent with the driving mechanism being VIV. Based on a theoretical proportionality between current speed and VIV frequencies, we derive ocean current speed time series at 2390 m depth from the vortex shedding frequencies recorded by DAS. The DAS-derived current speed time series is in agreement with recordings by a current meter located 3.75 km away from the hanging cable section (similar dominant period, high correlation after time shift). The DAS-derived current speed time series displays features, such as characteristic periods and spectral decay, associated with the generation of internal gravity waves and weak oceanic turbulence in the Mediterranean Sea. The results demonstrate the potential of DAS along hanging segments of fiber optic cables to monitor a wide range of oceanography processes, at depths barely studied with current instrumentation.

Antarctic landfast sea ice (fast ice) is stationary sea ice that is attached to the coast, grounded icebergs, ice shelves, or other protrusions on the continental shelf. Fast ice forms in narrow (generally up to 200 km wide) bands, and ranges in thickness from centimeters to tens of meters. In most regions, it forms in autumn, persists through the winter and melts in spring/summer, but can remain throughout the summer in particular locations. Despite its relatively limited horizontal extent (comprising between about 4 and 13 \% of overall sea ice), its presence, variability and seasonality are drivers of a wide range of physical, biological and biogeochemical processes, with both local and far-ranging ramifications for various Earth systems. Antarctic fast ice has, until quite recently, been overlooked in studies, likely due to insufficient knowledge of its distribution, leading to its reputation as a “missing piece of the Antarctic puzzle”. This review presents a synthesis of current knowledge of the physical, biogeochemical and biological aspects of fast ice, based on the sub-domains of: fast ice growth, properties and seasonality; remote-sensing and distribution; interactions with the atmosphere and the ocean; biogeochemical interactions; its role in primary production; and fast ice as a habitat for grazers. Finally, we consider the potential state of Antarctic fast ice at the end of the 21st Century, underpinned by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project model projections. This review also gives recommendations for targeted future work to increase our understanding of this critically-important element of the global cryosphere.

A document by Balaji Senapati. Click on the document to view its contents.

Feasibility of observing near-inertial waves with a single cast of a lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler is quantitatively assessed in simulated Garrett-Munk internal waves. Because the inertial period is shorter in higher latitudes and the interval between the upand downcasts is longer in shallower depths, the performance of the estimator is better in higher latitudes at shallower depths. Even in the best conditions, however, the estimates are contaminated by relative uncertainties greater than 100%. It is not feasible to estimate nearinertial waves accurately using a LADCP cast. Nevertheless, repeated casts at one station are capable of resolving typical near-inertial waves.

We examine how zooplankton influence phytoplankton bloom phenology from the top-down, then use inverse modelling to infer the distribution and drivers of mean community zooplankton grazing dynamics based on the skill with which different simulated grazing formulations are able to recreate the observed seasonal cycle in phytoplankton biomass. We find that oligotrophic (eutrophic) biomes require more (less) efficient grazing dynamics, characteristic of micro- (meso-) zooplankton, leading to a strong relationship between the observed mean annual phytoplankton concentration in a region and the optimal grazing parameterization required to simulate it’s observed phenology. Across the globe, we found that a type III functional response consistently exhibits more skill than a type II response, suggesting the mean dynamics of a coarse model grid-cell should offer stability and prey refuge at low biomass concentrations. These new observationally-based global distributions will be invaluable to help constrain, validate and develop next generation of biogeochemical models.

The Southern Ocean Seasonal Sea Ice Zone (SSIZ) is characterized by the development of spring phytoplankton blooms following retreating sea ice. Until recently, assessing SSIZ bloom carbon export has been limited by a lack of under ice observations. Here, we relate the timing of phytoplankton growth to the drawdown of surface nutrients and sea ice cover and estimate spring bloom net community production (bNCP) using biogeochemical profiling float observations. The onset of biological production follows initial sea ice breakup with 64% of bNCP under partial sea ice cover. Estimates of bNCP range from <1 to >4 mol C m-2 bloom-1, with earlier sea ice breakup associated with higher bNCP, and the highest bNCP where micronutrient supply is likely enhanced by topographic-driven mixing. These results indicate that satellite-derived export estimates will underestimate bNCP in the SSIZ and have implications for future carbon export in a changing Southern Ocean sea ice regime.