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Sensitivity of Forest Productivity to Trends in Snowmelt at Niwot Ridge, Colorado
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  • Eric Kennedy,
  • Noah Molotch,
  • Sean Burns,
  • Blanken Peter,
  • Ben Livneh
Eric Kennedy
University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado Boulder

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Noah Molotch
University of Colorado Boulder
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Sean Burns
University of Colorado Boulder
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Blanken Peter
University of Colorado Boulder
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Ben Livneh
University of Colorado Boulder
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Abstract

Anthropogenic global warming caused by increased atmospheric carbon forcing is expected to cause a decrease in peak snow water equivalent (SWE), shift the timing of snowmelt to earlier in the year, and lead to slower melt rates in the mountains of the Western United States. High-elevation forests in mountainous terrain represent a critical carbon sink. Understanding the ecohydrology of subalpine forests is crucial for assessing the health of these sinks. The Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research station, located at 3000 m amsl in the southern Rocky Mountains of Colorado, receives just over 1 m of annual precipitation mostly as snow, supporting a persistent seasonal snowpack in alpine and subalpine ecosystems. Previous studies show that longer growing season length is correlated with shallower snowpack, earlier spring onset and reduced net CO2 uptake. Co-located sensors provide over 20 years of continuous SWE and eddy covariance (EC) data, allowing for robust direct comparison of snow and carbon phenomena in a high-elevation catchment. Linear regression and time series analysis was performed on snowmelt, meteorological, phenological and ecosystem productivity variables. Peak productivity is correlated with peak SWE (R2=0.54) and further correlated with snowmelt disappearance (R2=0.38) and the timing of spring growth onset (R2=0.30). Timing of both peak productivity and spring growth onset are correlated with snowmelt and meteorological variables. A multivariable regression of meteorological variables, timing of spring growth onset, a temporal trend, and snowmelt rate and explains 94% of interannual variability in the timing of peak forest productivity. These results develop support and introduce new evidence for the existing studies of Niwot Ridge ecohydrology. Future work will investigate the meteorological and hydrological record extending back to 1979 and the long-term trends in snowmelt and forest productivity.