loading page

Detection of a local Mycobacterium bovis reservoir using cattle surveillance data
  • +7
  • Sara H. Downs,
  • Stuart Ashfield,
  • Mark Arnold,
  • Tony Roberts,
  • Alison Prosser,
  • Andy Robertson,
  • Susanne Frost,
  • Kate Harris,
  • Rachelle Avigad,
  • Graham C. Smith
Sara H. Downs
Animal and Plant Health Agency
Author Profile
Stuart Ashfield
Animal and Plant Health Agency
Author Profile
Mark Arnold
Animal and Plant Health Agency
Author Profile
Tony Roberts
Veterinary Advice Services Animal and Plant Health Agency Woodham Lane New Haw Addlestone Surrey KT15 3NB UK
Author Profile
Alison Prosser
Animal and Plant Health Agency
Author Profile
Andy Robertson
University of Exeter Environment and Sustainability Institute
Author Profile
Susanne Frost
Veterinary Advice Services Animal and Plant Health Agency Woodham Lane New Haw Addlestone Surrey KT15 3NB UK
Author Profile
Kate Harris
Animal and Plant Health Agency
Author Profile
Rachelle Avigad
Animal and Plant Health Agency
Author Profile
Graham C. Smith
National Wildlife Management Centre Animal and Plant Health Agency York UK
Author Profile

Abstract

The incidence of bovine tuberculosis (TB, caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in cattle has been associated with TB in badgers ( Meles meles) in parts of England. The aim was to identify badger associated M. bovis reservoirs in the Edge Area, between the High and Low Risk Areas for cattle TB. Data from badger TB surveys were sparse. Therefore, a definition for a local M. bovis reservoir potentially shared by cattle and badgers was developed using cattle TB surveillance data. The performance of the definition was estimated through Latent Class Analysis using badger TB survey data. Spatial units (25 km 2 ) in the Edge Area were classified as having a reservoir if they had i) at least one OTF-W (Officially Tuberculosis Free – Withdrawn) incident in a cattle herd not attributed to cattle movement in the previous two years, ii) more OTF-W incidents than Officially Tuberculosis Free – Suspended (OTF-S) incidents in the previous two years and iii) at least one TB incident (OTF-S or OTF-W) in at least three of the previous seven years. Approximately twenty percent of the Edge Area was classified as having a local M. bovis reservoir using the cattle-based definition. Assuming 15% TB prevalence in Edge Area badgers, sensitivity for the local M. bovis reservoir definition varied from 25.7% (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 10.7 to 85.1 %) to 64.8 % (95% CrI 48.1 to 88.0 %). Specificity was 91.9% (CrI 83.6 to 97.4 %). Over ninety percent of the local reservoir was in stable endemic TB areas identified through previous work and its spatial distribution was largely consistent with local veterinary knowledge. Uncertainty in the reservoir spatial distribution was explored through its recalculation in spatial units shifted in different directions. We recommend that the definition is re-evaluated as further data on badger infection with M. bovis becomes available.

Peer review status:ACCEPTED

17 May 2021Submitted to Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
18 May 2021Submission Checks Completed
18 May 2021Assigned to Editor
19 May 2021Reviewer(s) Assigned
21 Jun 2021Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
21 Jun 2021Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
20 Jul 20211st Revision Received
20 Jul 2021Submission Checks Completed
20 Jul 2021Assigned to Editor
20 Jul 2021Reviewer(s) Assigned
28 Jul 2021Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
28 Jul 2021Editorial Decision: Accept