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From pattern to process? Dual travelling waves, with contrasting propagation speeds, best describe a self-organised spatio-temporal pattern in population growth of a cyclic rodent
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  • Deon Roos,
  • Constantino Caminero-Saldaña,
  • David Elston,
  • Francois Mougeot,
  • María García-Ariza,
  • Beatriz Arroyo,
  • Juan José Luque-Larena,
  • Francisco Rojo Revilla,
  • Xavier Lambin
Deon Roos
University of Aberdeen

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Constantino Caminero-Saldaña
Instituto Tecnológico Agrario de Castilla-y-León (ITACyL)
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David Elston
Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland
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Francois Mougeot
Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC, CSIC-UCLM-JCCM)
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María García-Ariza
Instituto Tecnológico Agrario de Castilla-y-León (ITACyL)
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Beatriz Arroyo
Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC, CSIC-UCLM-JCCM)
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Juan José Luque-Larena
Universidad de Valladolid
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Francisco Rojo Revilla
Instituto Tecnológico Agrario de Castilla-y-León (ITACyL)
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Xavier Lambin
University of Aberdeen
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Abstract

The dynamics of cyclic populations distributed in space result from the relative strength of synchronising influences and the limited dispersal of destabilising factors (activators and inhibitors), known to cause multi-annual population cycles. However, while each of these have been well studied in isolation, there is limited empirical evidence about how the processes of synchronisation and activation-inhibition act together, largely owing to the scarcity of datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal scale. We assessed a variety of models that could be underlying the spatio-temporal pattern, designed to capture both theoretical and empirical understandings of travelling waves using large-scale (> 35,000 km2), multi-year (2011-2017) field monitoring data on abundances of common vole (Microtus arvalis), a cyclic agricultural rodent pest. We found most support for a pattern formed from the summation of two radial travelling waves with contrasting speeds that together describe population growth rates across the region.
06 Dec 2021Submitted to Ecology Letters
10 Jan 2022Submission Checks Completed
10 Jan 2022Assigned to Editor
24 Jan 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
20 Feb 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
01 Mar 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Major
14 Apr 20221st Revision Received
20 May 2022Submission Checks Completed
20 May 2022Assigned to Editor
23 May 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
16 Jun 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
24 Jun 2022Editorial Decision: Accept
Sep 2022Published in Ecology Letters volume 25 issue 9 on pages 1986-1998. 10.1111/ele.14074