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\begin{document}

\title{Global changes in water vapor 1979-2020}



\author[1]{Richard Allan}%
\author[2]{Kate Willett}%
\author[3]{Viju John}%
\author[4]{Tim Trent}%
\affil[1]{University of Reading,National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Reading}%
\affil[2]{Met Office}%
\affil[3]{EUMETSAT}%
\affil[4]{University of Leicester}%


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  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Global-scale changes in water vapor and responses to surface temperature
variability since 1979 are evaluated across a range of satellite and
ground-based observations, a reanalysis (ERA5) and coupled and
atmosphere-only CMIP6 climate model simulations. Global-mean column
integrated water vapor increased by 1\textbackslash{}\%/decade during
1988-2014 in observations and atmosphere-only simulations but coupled
simulations overestimate trends because internal climate variability
suppressed observed warming in this period. Decreases in low-altitude
tropical water vapor in ERA5 and ground-based observations before around
1993 are inconsistent with simulations and increased column integrated
water vapor in a satellite dataset since 1987. AIRS satellite data does
not capture the increased tropospheric water vapor since 2002 in other
satellite, reanalysis and model products. However, global water vapor
responses to interannual temperature variability is consistent across
datasets with increases of \$\textbackslash{}sim\$4-5\textbackslash{}\%
per K near the surface and 10-15\textbackslash{}\%/K at 300 hPa. Global
water vapor responses are explained by thermodynamic amplification of
upper tropospheric temperature changes and the Clausius Clapeyron
temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure that are dominated
by the tropical ocean responses. Upper tropospheric moistening is larger
in climate model simulations with greater upper tropospheric warming.%
\end{abstract}%



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