<div>An expert-based risk ranking framework for assessing potential pathogens
in the live baitfish trade</div><div>Running title: Expert-based ranking of pathogens in live baitfish</div><div>Authors: MC McEachran<sup>1,2</sup> , F
Sampedro<sup>3</sup>, DA Travis<sup>2,4</sup> , NBD
Phelps<sup>1,2</sup>*</div><div>* Corresponding author</div><div><sup>1</sup>Minnesota Aquatic Invasive Species Research Center,
University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA</div><div><sup>2</sup> Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation
Biology, University of Minnesota</div><div><sup>3</sup> Environmental Health Sciences Division, School of
Public Health, University of Minnesota</div><div><sup>4</sup> One Health Division, Department of Veterinary
Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of
Minnesota</div><div><b>Summary</b> :</div><div>As global trade of live animals expands, there is increasing need to
assess the risks of invasive organisms, including pathogens, that can
accompany these translocations. The movement and release of live
baitfish by recreational anglers has been identified as a particularly
high-risk pathway for the spread of aquatic diseases in the United
States. To provide risk-based decision support for preventing and
managing disease invasions from baitfish release, we developed a hazard
identification and ranking tool to identify the pathogens that pose the
highest risk to wild fish via this pathway. We created a screening
protocol and semi-quantitative stochastic risk ranking framework,
combining published data with expert elicitation (n=25) and applied the
framework to identify high-priority pathogens for the bait supply in
Minnesota, USA. Normalized scores were developed for seven risk criteria
(likelihood of transfer, prevalence in bait supply, likelihood of
colonization, current distribution, economic impact if established,
ecological impact if established, and host species) to characterize a
pathogen’s ability to persist in the bait supply and cause impacts to
wild fish species of concern. The generalist macroparasite<i>Schizocotyle acheilognathi</i> was identified as presenting highest
overall threat, followed by the microsporidian <i>Ovipleistophora
ovariae,</i> and viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus. Our findings provide
risk-based decision support for managers charged with maintaining both
the recreational fishing industry and sustainable, healthy natural
resources. The ranking process, implemented here for a single state case
study, provides a standardized conceptual framework that could be
applied across jurisdictions to inform risk-based management of the live
baitfish pathway.</div><div><b>Acknowledgements:</b> Funding for this project was provided by the
Minnesota Environment and Natural Resources Trust Fund as recommended by
the Minnesota Aquatic Invasive Species Research Center and the
Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources. We thank the 25
expert stakeholders whose participation helped to inform this study.</div><div><b>Conflict of interest</b> : None of the authors or experts whose
opinion was elicited in this study have a conflict of interest to
declare.</div><div><b>Ethics approval</b> : This research was reviewed by the University
of Minnesota’s Institutional Review Board and determined to be “not
human research” (STUDY00007170).</div><div><b>Keywords</b> : risk assessment, hazard prioritization, hazard
identification, decision analysis, baitfish</div>