Population and habitat responses to the global climate change in
a widespread species, the Asiatic Toad (Bufo gargarizans)
Liuyang Yanga,b¶,
Huabin Zhanga,c¶, Naijing Zhanga,
Ruiqing Caia, Peng
Yana, En Li a*, Tao Pana *, Xiaobing Wu a*
aAnhui Province Key Laboratory of the Conservation and
Exploitation of Biological Resources, College of Life Sciences, Anhui
Normal University, Wuhu 241000, Anhui, China;
¶ These authors contributed equally to this work.
* Author for correspondence: Xiaobing Wu,
wuxb@ahnu.edu.cn; Tao Pan,
pantao@ahnu.edu.cn;
En
Li,
lien1971@mail.ahnu.edu.cn.
Address of corresponding author (they have the same address): Zhe Shan
Campus, Anhui Normal University, Jinghu District, Wuhu city, Anhui
Province, China.
Running Head: The Asiatic Toad respond to the climate change
Abstract:Global climate change is gradually changing the distribution and
diversity pattern of species. In order to study the change of
distribution area and distribution barycenter ofBufo
gargarizans under climate change, we adopted the maximum-entropy
modeling (Maxent) model and barycenter migration analysis. And four
General circulation models (GCMs) under four representative
concentration pathways (RCPs), 29 environment variables (including
bioclimate, topography, habitat and human impact) were used to predict
the current and future (2050 and 2070) distribution ofB.
gargarizans. The results show that the Mean temperature of Driest
quarter (Bio9), Precipitation of driest month (Bio14) and population
(POP) have greater influence on the distribution of B.
gargarizans , it indicates that climate and anthropogenic factors have
greater influence on the distribution of B. gargarizans than
other environmental factors such as topography and landform. And in the
next 30 to 50 years, from the perspective of the large spatial scale of
the whole China, the distribution area of B. gargarizans is in
the eastern part of China, the southeastern part is reduced, and the
Midwest and northwest part is expanded. On the whole, the suitable
habitat of B. gargarizans will be reduced in the future and will
migrate to the high latitude and altitude area. In this study, B.
gargarizans was used as a
sentinel
species to study the response of amphibians to climate change, this
paper aims to reveal the mechanism of amphibian response to climate
change from the current and future dispersal patterns of B.
gargarizans .
Key words: Bufo gargarizans , Maxent, distribution,
barycenter migration, climate change, sentinel species