Introduction
The rapid increase of reported COVID-19 cases in Germany, has prompted
policymakers to announce on Oct 28, 2020 a new period of stricter
control measures starting on Nov 2, 2020 [1]. As of the first day of
this “shutdown light”, Germany accounts for 545,027 reported
SARS-CoV-2 infections and 10,530 reported deaths [2]. The decision
from Oct 28 stipulates softer measures than were applied in spring of
2020 [3]. In particular, schools maintain in person teaching, and
all shops, not just grocery stores, keep their regular opening hours.
The rising case and fatality numbers reported in Europe since early
September [4] made people more aware of the risk of infection, but
opposing opinions persevered and stimulated protests throughout the
country. It is hard to quantify how the measures are going to change the
course of the epidemic in Germany, as a match to the March/April
shutdown is not exactly possible. Nevertheless mathematical models allow
simulating different scenarios of how the November shutdown might play
out and what is likely to follow under various assumptions on the
policies and public behavior adopted.