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\title{Past, present and future geographic range of the relict Mediterranean
and Macaronesian Juniperus phoenicea complex}



\author[1]{Montserrat Salvà-Catarineu}%
\author[2]{Angel Romo}%
\author[3]{Małgorzata Mazur}%
\author[3]{Monika Zielińska}%
\author[4]{Pietro Minissale}%
\author[5]{Ali Dönmez}%
\author[6]{Krystyna Boratyńska}%
\author[6]{Adam Boratyński}%
\affil[1]{Universitat de Barcelona}%
\affil[2]{Botanical Institute of Barcelona}%
\affil[3]{Kazimierz Wielki University in Bydgoszcz}%
\affil[4]{University of Catania}%
\affil[5]{Hacettepe University Faculty of Science}%
\affil[6]{Polish Academy of Sciences}%


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  \date{May 19, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Aim The aim of this study is to model the past, current and future
distribution of J. phoenicea s.s., J. turbinata and J. canariensis,
based on bioclimatic variables using a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) in
the Mediterranean and Macaronesian regions. Location Mediterranean and
Macaronesian Taxon Cupressaceae, Juniperus Methods Data on the
occurrence of the J. phoenicea complex was obtained from the GBIF, the
literature, herbaria, and the authors' field notes. The bioclimatic
variables were obtained from the WorldClim database
(http://worldclim.org/) and Paleoclim (http://www.paleoclim.org/). The
climate data related to species localities were used for predictions of
niches by implementation of MaxEnt and we evaluated the model with
ENMeval. Results The potential niches of Juniperus phoenicea during the
LIG, LGM and MH covered 30\%, 10\% and almost 100\%, respectively, of
the current potential niche. Climate warming could reduce potential
niches by 30\% and 90\% in scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively.
The potential niches of Juniperus turbinata had a broad
circum-Mediterranean and Canarian distribution during the LIG and the
MH, extending its distribution during the LGM when it was found in more
areas than at present; the predicted warming in scenario RCP2.6 and
RCP8.5 could reduce the current potential niche by 30\% and 50\%,
respectively. The model did not find suitable niches for J. canariensis
during the LIG and the LGM, but during the MH its potential niche was
30\% larger than at present. The climate warming scenario RCP2.6
indicates a reduction of the potential niche by 30\%, while RCP8.5 does
so by almost 60\%. Main conclusions This research can provide
information to increase the protection of the juniper forest and to try
to counteract the phenomenon of local extinctions caused by anthropic
pressure and climate changes.%
\end{abstract}%



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