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\begin{document}

\title{Upward Shifts in Ageratina adenophora Global Distributions in Response
to Future Climate Change Scenarios}



\author[1]{Changjun Gu}%
\author[2]{Tu Yanli}%
\author[3]{Linshan Liu}%
\author[1]{Wei Bo}%
\author[3]{Yili Zhang}%
\author[4]{Haibin Yu}%
\author[2]{Wang Xilong}%
\author[2]{Yangjin Zhuoga}%
\author[3]{Binghua Zhang}%
\author[1]{Cui Bohao}%
\affil[1]{Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS}%
\affil[2]{Tibet Plateau Institute of Biology}%
\affil[3]{Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences}%
\affil[4]{Guangzhou University}%


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  \date{May 25, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Aim: Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans
worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of
IAS. Predicting the suitable distributions of IAS can prevent their
further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is a invasive weed over 30
countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential
suitable distribution of A. adenophora remains unclear along with its
response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current
and future potential distributions of Ageratina adenophora. Location:
Global Taxa: Asteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King \& H.Rob.
Commonly known as Crofton weed. Methods: Based on A. adenophora
occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its potential
distribution of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050
and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the
distribution characteristics of this weed and the `ecospat' package in R
to analyse its altitudinal distribution changes. Results: The area under
the curve value (\textgreater{}0.9) indicated excelled model
performance. Among environment factors, Mean Temperature of Coldest
Quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable habitat
for A.adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios,
although regional increase were observed, including in six biodiversity
hotspot regions. The potential suitable habitat of A.adenophora under
climate change moved toward regions with higher elevation. Main
Conclusions: Temperature was the most important variable influencing the
distribution of A. Adenophora. Under the background of warming climate,
the potential distribution range of A.adenophora will shrink globally
but increase regionally. The distribution of A.adenophora will shift
toward higher elevation under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of
special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to
climate change, and increasing human activities provide more
opportunities for IAS invasion.%
\end{abstract}%



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