2.2 Virus transmission and disease course
For each of the three transmission pathways, we considered two different
contact probabilities, depending on the spatial location of the virus
source and of the susceptible individual: 1) a first potential
transmission occurred with probability Pi,i ,
between individuals whose home range centres fell both in cell i.This parameter referred mainly to those wild boars which were likely to
belong to the same social group; 2) a second potential transmission
occurred with probability Pi,j , between
individuals whose home range fell in the two neighbouring cells iand j , respectively. This parameter referred to the wild boars
which were likely to belong to different but neighbouring social groups.
After infection, individuals were moved into the “exposed” state to
allow for a 3-day period of incubation and latency (Blome et al., 2013),
then transferred into the “infected” compartment. There, an infected
wild boar had a γ probability to die because of the ASF acute
infection within a 5-day period, whose value was optimized before model
running. The individuals which did not survive the disease were
transferred each day into the “infectious carcass” compartment. In the
first scenario, survivors were directly moved to the “immune” state
and could neither be re-infected, nor transmit the disease to others
(Fig. 1). In the second scenario, ASF survivors we moved into the
“convalescent” state at 5 dpi, became seropositive at 15 dpi and
remained in that compartment until full recovery, according to parameterχ . Then, if still alive, they were transferred into the
“immune” state (Fig. 1).