2.6 Analysis of model results
After the parameter optimization process, we performed the actual model runs and compared the disease course under the sole direct and carcass-mediated transmission (scenario 1), and under the action of all three mechanisms (direct, carcass-mediated, convalescents; scenario 2). For each scenario, we ran the model 1,000 times. In each iteration and at each time step, we recorded the number of infected individuals (ASF+), seropositive individuals (Ab+), and the number of both virus and seropositive wild boar (ASF+ & Ab+). We also kept track of the number of infected carcasses and of total population size. We stopped model running as soon as the virus disappeared from the population and had no more chances to be transmitted through the pathways considered in that specific scenario. In such a case we also recorded the year and day of virus extinction. For each simulated day, we also recorded the number of ASF infections occurring through each of the three transmission routes, thus obtaining an estimate of how relevant each source of infection was in virus transmission and persistence.