Invasion phase (years 1-2) |
Invasion phase (years 1-2) |
Invasion phase
(years 1-2) |
ASFV+
|
0.05% (0.01 – 0.13) |
0.07% (0.01 –
0.17) |
ASFV+ & Ab+
|
0.09% (0.01 – 0.21) |
0.04% (0.01 – 0.11) |
Ab+
|
0.06% (0.01 – 0.18) |
0.08% (0.01 –
0.21) |
Population density (wild boar / km2) |
2.64 (2.58 –
2.69) |
2.62 (2.54 – 2.70) |
First epidemic wave (years 3-4) |
First epidemic wave (years 3-4) |
First epidemic wave (years 3-4) |
ASFV+
|
0.67% (0.31 – 0.92) |
0.74% (0.42 –
1.14) |
ASFV+ & Ab+
|
0.44% (0.23 – 0.68) |
0.49% (0.27 – 0.73) |
Ab+
|
1.32% (1.04 – 2.39) |
1.90% (1.19 –
2.55) |
Population density (wild boar / km2) |
1.31 (0.94 –
1.51) |
1.13 (0.87 – 1.44) |
Endemic phase (years 5-7) |
Endemic phase (years 5-7) |
Endemic phase
(years 5-7) |
ASFV+
|
0.10% (0.01 – 0.33) |
0.13% (0.02 –
0.35) |
ASFV+ & Ab+
|
0.11% (0.02 – 0.23) |
0.09% (0.01 – 0.22) |
Ab+
|
1.64% (1.40 – 2.37) |
2.02% (1.61 –
2.46) |
Population density (wild boar / km2) |
0.92 (0.55 –
1.02) |
0.87 (0.51 – 0.98) |
Second epidemic wave (years 8-10) |
Second epidemic wave (years 8-10) |
Second epidemic wave (years 8-10) |
ASFV+
|
0.50% (0.16 – 0.66) |
0.55% (0.17 –
0.60) |
ASFV+ & Ab+
|
0.60% (0.22 – 0.90) |
0.36% (0.10 – 0.58) |
Ab+
|
1.95% (1.20 – 2.84) |
2.19% (1.30 –
2.92) |
Population density (wild boar / km2) |
2.19 (1.91 –
2.59) |
2.03 (1.87 – 2.54) |
5-year persistence probability |
55% |
64% |
10-year persistence probability |
52% |
57% |