Figure 3. Projected mid-century climate conditions (30-year averages centered on 2050) used to parameterize bioenergetic survivorship models: mean annual surface temperature (left) and duration of frost-free period (right). Winter survivorship estimates were subsequently used as predictors of occurrence probability in species distribution models for five focal bat species. Future climate scenarios were driven by each combination of two global circulation models (GCMs): GFDL-ESM2M and HadGEM2-ES, and two dynamically-downscaled regional climate models (RCMs): RegCM4 and WRF. We show the mean (top) and range (center) among the four scenarios as well as the mean projected change from current conditions (bottom).