Figure 5. Projected change in Myotis lucifugus relative probability of occurrence (a) under multiple future scenarios: exposure to white-nose syndrome (WNS) under current climate conditions (b) and exposure to WNS under projected mid-century climate conditions (c-f). Future climate scenarios were driven by each combination of two global circulation models (GCMs): GFDL-ESM2M (c-d) and HadGEM2-ES (e-f) and two dynamically-downscaled regional climate models (RCMs): RegCM4 (c,e) and WRF (d,f). Darker green indicates a projected increase in occurrence probability; darker purple indicates a projected decrease. The species’ current known range (gray outline) and points of winter observations/captures (gray points) are overlaid.