Throughout the last century, climate change has altered the geographic
distributions of many species. Insects, in particular, vary in their
ability to track changing climates, and it is likely that phenology is
an important determinant of how well expands can either expand or shift
their geographic distributions in response to climate change.
Grasshoppers are an ideal group to test this hypothesis, given that
co-occurring confamilial, and even congeneric, species can differ in
phenology. Here, I tested the hypothesis that early- and late-season
species should possess different range expansion potentials, as
estimated by habitat suitability from ecological niche models. I used
nine different modeling techniques to estimate habitat suitability of
six grasshopper species of varying phenology under two climate scenarios
for the year 2050. My results support the hypothesis that phenology is
an important determinant of range expansion potential. Early-season
species might shift northward during the spring, while the modeled
geographic distributions of late-season species were generally constant
under climate change, likely because they were pre-adapted to hot and
dry conditions. Phenology might therefore be a good predictor of how
insect distributions might change in the future, and conservation
efforts might focus most heavily on early-season species that are most
impacted by climate change.