3.4 Future changes in appropriate habitat areas and variations
in highly suitable centroid distribution.
According to Table 2, using SSP1-2.6, the lost area for S.
ciliatum in the 2050s will be 0.06 × 104km2, the acquired area will be 9.65 ×
104 km2, and the stable area will be
10.79 × 104 km2. The gained
territory will be in Southern Tibet and Northwest Sichuan. According to
SSP5-8.5, the lost area for S. ciliatum in the 2050s will be 0.09
× 104 km2, the acquired area will be
12.63 × 104 km2, and the stable area
will be 10.74 × 104 km2. The gained
territory will be in Southern Tibet and Northwest Sichuan. The new
territory will be in Southern Tibet, Northwest Sichuan, and Northern
Yunnan. Under SSP1-2.6, the lost area for S. ciliatum in the
2070s will be 0.07 × 104 km2, the
gained area will be 9.56 × 104 km2,
and the stable area will be 10.75 × 104km2. The new territories will be in Southern Tibet,
Central Yunnan, and Northwest Sichuan. According to SSP5-8.5, the lost
area for S. ciliatum in the 2070s will be 0.21 ×
104 km2, the acquired area will be
26.33 × 104 km2, and the stable area
will be 10.48 × 104 km2. The new
territory will be in Southern Tibet, Northeast Yunnan, and Northwest
Sichuan (Fig. 8).
Using SSP1-2.6, the lost area for S. nepalense in the 2050s will
be 0.36 × 104 km2, the gained area
will be 13.43 × 104 km2, and the
stable area will be 62.53 × 104 km2.
The gained territory will be in Southern Tibet and Northwest Sichuan.
According to SSP5-8.5, the lost area for S. nepalense in the
2050s will be 0.77 × 104 km2, the
acquired area will be 12.42 × 104km2, and the stable area will be 61.97 ×
104 km2. The gained territory will
be in Southern Tibet and Northwest Sichuan. According to SSP1-2.6, the
lost area for S. nepalense in the 2070s will be 0.60 ×
104 km2, the gained area will be
12.70 × 104 km2, and the stable area
will be 62.13 × 104 km2. The gained
territory will be in Southern Tibet and Northwest Sichuan. Under
SSP5-8.5, the lost area for S. nepalense in Southern Tibet,
Northwest Sichuan, and Southwest Gansu will be 1.63 ×
104 km2, the gained area will be
36.86 × 104 km2, and the stable area
will be 60.77 × 104 km2 in the 2070s
(Fig. 8).
According to SSP1-2.6, the lost area for S. yunnanense in the
2050s will be 2.38 × 104 km2, the
gained area will be 34.15 × 104 km2,
and the stable area will be 88.65 ×
104km2. Southern Shaanxi, Southern
Shanxi, Northern Henan, and Central Shandong will be the new provinces.
According to SSP5-8.5, the lost area for S. yunnanense in the
2050s will be 7.50 × 104 km2, the
acquired area will be 41.16 × 104km2, and the stable area will be 83.05 ×
104km2. Southwestern Xinjiang,
Southern Tibet, Northern Sichuan, Southern Shaanxi, Southern Gansu,
Northern Henan, and Central Shandong will gain territory. According to
SSP1-2.6, the lost area for S. yunnanense in the 2070s will be
6.18 × 104 km2, the gained area will
be 26.87 × 104 km2, and the stable
area will be 84.47 × 104 km2.
Southern Xinjiang, Southern Tibet, Northern Sichuan, Northern Henan, and
Southern Shandong will gain territory. According to SSP5-8.5, the lost
area for S. yunnanense in the 2070s will be 15.69 ×
104 km2, the acquired area will be
89.29 × 104 km2, and the stable area
will be 74.35 × 104 km2. Southern
Xinjiang, Southern Tibet, Northern and Eastern Guizhou, Southern Gansu,
Southern Ningxia, Southern Shaanxi, Southern Hebei, and Western Shandong
would gain territory (Fig. 8).