3.4 Changes in spatial distribution of habitat suitability in the future
Table 4. Suitable areas for PWD under different climatic conditions.
Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for the 2050s and 2070s, predictions of potentially suitable distributions of PWD in the future were illustrated (Table 4). The main distributions were in South China, East China, and Central China. There were also distributions in some parts of the Southwest, Northwest, and Northeast (Fig. 6). Under SSP1-2.6, the total suitable area of PWD was 240.36 × 104 km2, 21.77% more than the current distribution area. The highly suitable area increased by almost three times its current amount, whereas the moderately suitable and lowly suitable areas decreased by 36.36% and 44.65%, respectively, in 2050. Under SSP2-4.5, the total suitable area of PWD was 246.99 × 104 km2, an increase of 25.13% compared to the current distribution area. The highly suitable area increased by almost two times, whereas the moderately suitable and lowly suitable areas decreased by 35.42% and 36.80%, respectively, in 2050. Under SSP5-8.5, the total suitable area of PWD was 267.23 × 104 km2, an increase of 35.38% compared to the current distribution area. The highly suitable area increased by almost four times, and the moderately suitable and lowly suitable areas decreased by 40.14% and 37.24%, respectively, in 2050. Under SSP1-2.6, in 2070, the total suitable area of PWD was 243.72 × 104 km2, an increase of 23.47% compared to the current distribution area. The highly suitable area increased by almost three times, and the moderately suitable and lowly suitable areas decreased by 44.09% and 42.06%, respectively, in 2070. Under SSP2-4.5, the total suitable area of PWD was 261.97 × 104km2, an increase of 32.72% compared to the current distribution area. The highly suitable area increased by almost three times, and the moderately suitable and lowly suitable areas decreased by 38.75% and 38.03%, respectively, in 2070. Under SSP5-8.5, the total suitable area of PWD was 286.29 × 104 km2, an increase of 45.4% compared to the current distribution area, the highly suitable area increased by almost four times, and the moderately suitable and lowly suitable areas decreased by 29.12% and 24.51%, respectively, in 2070.
Fig. 6. Changes in current potential distribution to future distribution under different future climate change scenarios in China.
Table 5. Changes in the potential geographic distribution of PWD.
According to Table 5, by the 2050s, the total suitable area will increase to 44.01 × 104m2 (SSP1-2.6), 50.72 × 104m2 (SSP2-4.5), and 69.92 × 104m2 (SSP5-8.5). The increased areas were the largest under SSP5-8.5 compared with the other climatic scenarios, and the increased areas were mainly distributed in parts of Hebei, Liaoning, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hainan, Hunan, and other regions (Fig. 7). By the 2070s, the areas will increase to 48.17 * 104m2 (SSP1-2.6), 55.24 * 104m2 (SSP2-4.5), and 90.47* 104m2 (SSP5-8.5) (Table 5). The increased areas were the largest under SSP5-8.5 compared with the other climatic scenarios, and the increased areas were mainly distributed in parts of Jilin, Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan (Fig. 7).
Fig. 7. Potentially suitable changes in PWD under different climate change scenarios in China.