3.4 Changes in spatial distribution of habitat suitability in
the future
Table 4. Suitable areas for PWD under different climatic
conditions.
Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and
SSP5-8.5 for the 2050s and 2070s, predictions of potentially suitable
distributions of PWD in the future were illustrated (Table 4). The main
distributions were in South China, East China, and Central China. There
were also distributions in some parts of the Southwest, Northwest, and
Northeast (Fig. 6). Under SSP1-2.6, the total suitable area of PWD was
240.36 × 104 km2, 21.77% more than
the current distribution area. The highly suitable area increased by
almost three times its current amount, whereas the moderately suitable
and lowly suitable areas decreased by 36.36% and 44.65%, respectively,
in 2050. Under SSP2-4.5, the total
suitable area of PWD was 246.99 × 104 km2, an increase
of 25.13% compared to the current distribution area. The highly
suitable area increased by almost two times, whereas the moderately
suitable and lowly suitable areas decreased by 35.42% and 36.80%,
respectively, in 2050. Under SSP5-8.5, the total suitable area of PWD
was 267.23 × 104 km2, an increase of 35.38% compared
to the current distribution area. The highly suitable area increased by
almost four times, and the moderately suitable and lowly suitable areas
decreased by 40.14% and 37.24%, respectively, in 2050. Under SSP1-2.6,
in 2070, the total suitable area of PWD was 243.72 ×
104 km2, an increase of 23.47%
compared to the current distribution area. The highly suitable area
increased by almost three times, and the moderately suitable and lowly
suitable areas decreased by 44.09% and 42.06%, respectively, in
2070. Under SSP2-4.5, the total
suitable area of PWD was 261.97 × 104km2, an increase of 32.72% compared to the current
distribution area. The highly suitable area increased by almost three
times, and the moderately suitable and lowly suitable areas decreased by
38.75% and 38.03%, respectively, in 2070. Under SSP5-8.5, the total
suitable area of PWD was 286.29 ×
104 km2, an increase of 45.4%
compared to the current distribution area, the highly suitable area
increased by almost four times, and the moderately suitable and lowly
suitable areas decreased by 29.12% and 24.51%, respectively, in 2070.
Fig. 6. Changes in current potential distribution to future
distribution under different future climate change scenarios in China.
Table 5. Changes in the potential geographic distribution of
PWD.
According to Table 5, by the 2050s, the total suitable area will
increase to 44.01 ×
104m2 (SSP1-2.6), 50.72 ×
104m2 (SSP2-4.5), and 69.92 ×
104m2 (SSP5-8.5). The increased
areas were the largest under SSP5-8.5 compared with the other climatic
scenarios, and the increased areas were mainly distributed in parts of
Hebei, Liaoning, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hainan, Hunan, and other regions (Fig.
7). By the 2070s, the areas will increase to 48.17 *
104m2 (SSP1-2.6), 55.24 *
104m2 (SSP2-4.5), and 90.47*
104m2 (SSP5-8.5) (Table 5). The
increased areas were the largest under SSP5-8.5 compared with the other
climatic scenarios, and the increased areas were mainly distributed in
parts of Jilin, Liaoning, Hebei,
Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, and
Hainan (Fig. 7).
Fig. 7. Potentially suitable changes in PWD under different
climate change scenarios in China.