Environmental Variation
For each planting, environmental conditions were characterised based on
the local temperature profile. Temperature is known to be an important
environmental cue regulating Arabidopsis development (Granier et al.,
2002; Springate & Kover, 2014) and warming is a primary consequence of
climate change. On-site ground temperature was initially modelled at
hourly resolution for 203 days following field transplantation using
daily minimum and maximum temperature (the maximum number of days of
data available for all plantings; temperature modelling as described in
Wilczek et al. (2010), providing a high-resolution description of
temperature conditions. However, lowering the resolution to daily
minimum and maximum temperature yielded equally accurate trait
predictions (Appendix S3). We adopted this resolution in our model
because this is the typical resolution available for historical records
and future projections (Cornes et al., 2018; Gent et al., 2011; Thornton
et al., 2016). We used all 203 days of data to describe environmental
variation, resulting in 406 (203 x 2) environmental predictors.