Mathematical Modelling of the Impact of Abstainers and Registration on
Electoral Behavior
- Masitawal Goshu
Abstract
In this study, I developed a nonlinear mathematical model to explore the
dynamics of citizens on electoral lists, as well as the impact of
abstainers and voter registration on political electors. The models are
analyzed for positive and boundedness, asymptotically stability of
abstention-free and abstaining equilibrium points both locally and
globally, and sensitivity analysis of model parameters based on the
fundamental reproduction number R0. Finally, numerical simulations were
carried out using the ODE45 subroutine of MATLAB to interpret using
graphs. The findings demonstrate that abstainers have a detrimental
impact on voter turnout. Now, is the time to raise voter awareness to
educate them about the value of electoral and political involvement,
protect them from the harmful effects of abstainers, and reduce the
number of those who have registered but have not voted.