Chinese pangolin extinction-risk model
We successfully modeled the extinction risk of the Chinese pangolin
across China with MaxEnt from 1970-2000 (Fig. 3). The average test AUC
of 100 replicate runs was 0.935, and the standard deviation was 0.007.
The prediction results had a satisfactory reference value. The
population count gained a 68% contribution rate of the model: bio19
contributed 11%, bio4 contributed 6.9% and elevation contributed 5.3%
(others included bio9 [3.1%], bio15 [2.1%], cropland
[1.9%] and grazing [1.6%]). The extinction risk ranged from 0
to 0.93. The marginal response curve of a single variable indicated that
as the population count increased, the extinction risk was elevated
exponentially. When the population count reached approximately 7500
persons each grid (100 km2), the extinction risk
remained almost unchanged (supersaturated status). The extinction risk
first increased and then decreased with increasing precipitation in the
warmest quarter and seasonal changes in temperature and elevation. The
extinction risk model indicated that anthropogenic variables could be
the principal causes of local extinctions of Chinese pangolins, followed
by climatic variables.