Figure 6. Changes in areal coverage for different rain rate
thresholds. (a) Areal mean coverage along each event (small dots) for
different rain intensity thresholds (different colors) in historic
events (horizontal axis) and future (PGW) events (vertical axis). Values
are normalized by the maximal value observed for each rain rate
threshold. Average inter-event values are marked with large circles.
Filled circles demonstrate statistically significant changes between
future and historic values, and one hollow circle shows an insignificant
difference. (b) Fraction of events with larger areal coverage in
historic compared to future simulations for each of the inspected rain
rate thresholds.
3.4 Changes in Extreme Rain Rates for Different Durations
The change in maximal rain rate for each pixel displays different
behavior along the study area and between durations. The maps in Fig. 7
show the difference between the inter-event average of the maximum rain
rate per event for each pixel, over durations of 10-min to 24-h. For
short durations (10-60 min, Fig. 7a-b, Fig. S7), a north-south gradient
in maximal rain rates is evident in maximal rain rates. Significant
decreases are identified mainly over the southern and eastern desert
areas and far into the sea. In contrast, a positive change sub-parallel
to the coastline and over Lebanon is present. It is observed mainly a
few kilometers offshore and over the mountains at the north of the study
region. Over longer durations (a few hours to one day), a larger portion
of the region exhibits a significant change in maximal rain intensities
(Fig. 7c-d, Fig. S7). This change is almost exclusively negative,
focusing over both the desert area and most of the northern land region
(excluding the shoreline and the upslopes of the Lebanon Mountains). In
relative terms, for the longer durations, almost 25% of the area
exhibits a decrease of more than 40% compared with areal-average
maximal rain rate in historic events (Fig. S7). It must be noted,
however, that the spatial perspective presented in Fig. 7 involves both
the increase in rain rates, and the decrease in wet-frequency caused by
smaller areal coverage of these intensities and shorter event durations,
resulting in a mixture of increased and decreased maximal rain rates.