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\begin{document}

\title{Impacts of Climate Change on Subannual Hydropower Generation: A
Multi-model Assessment of the United States Federal Hydropower Plants}



\author[1]{Tian Zhou}%
\author[2]{Shih-Chieh Kao}%
\author[1]{Wenwei Xu}%
\author[2]{Sudershan Gangrade}%
\author[1]{Nathalie Voisin}%
\affil[1]{Pacific Northwest National Laboratory}%
\affil[2]{Oak Ridge National Laboratory}%


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  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that
provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is
essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization.
Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically
challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling
representation of key dynamics across scales and processes. The SECURE
Water Act requires a periodic assessment of the impact of climate change
on the United States federal hydropower. The uncertainties associated
with the structure of the tools in the previous assessment was limited
to an ensemble of climate models. We leverage the second assessment to
evaluate the compounded impact of climate and reservoir-hydropower
models' structural uncertainties on monthly hydropower projections.
While the second assessment relies on a mostly-statistical
regression-based hydropower model, we introduce a mostly-conceptual
reservoir operations-hydropower model. Using two different types of
hydropower model allows us to provide the first hydropower assessment
with uncertainty partitioning associated with both climate and
hydropower models. We also update the second assessment, performed
initially at an annual time scale, to a seasonal time scale. Results
suggest that at least 50\% of the uncertainties, both at annual and
seasonal scales, are attributed to the climate models. The annual
predictions are consistent between hydropower models which marginally
contribute to the variability in annual projections. However, up to 50\%
of seasonal variability can be attributed to the choice of the
hydropower model in regions over the western US where the reservoir
storage is substantial. The analysis identifies regions where
multi-model assessments are needed and presents a novel approach to
partition uncertainties in hydropower projections. Another outcome
includes an updated evaluation of CMIP5-based federal hydropower
projection, at the monthly scale and with a larger ensemble, which can
provide a baseline for understanding the upcoming 3rd assessment based
on CMIP6 projections.%
\end{abstract}%



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