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\begin{document}

\title{Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets}



\author[1]{Antony J Payne}%
\author[2]{Sophie Nowicki}%
\author[3]{Ayako Abe-Ouchi}%
\author[4]{Cécile Agosta}%
\author[5]{Patrick M. Alexander}%
\author[6]{Torsten Albrecht}%
\author[7]{Xylar S Asay-Davis}%
\author[8]{Andy Aschwanden}%
\author[9]{Alice Barthel}%
\author[10]{Thomas J. Bracegirdle}%
\author[6]{Reinhard Calov}%
\author[11]{Christopher Chambers}%
\author[12]{Youngmin Choi}%
\author[13]{Richard I. Cullather}%
\author[14]{Joshua K Cuzzone}%
\author[15]{Christophe dumas}%
\author[16]{Tamsin Edwards}%
\author[17]{Denis Felikson}%
\author[18]{Xavier Fettweis}%
\author[19]{Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi}%
\author[20]{Heiko Goelzer}%
\author[21]{Rupert Gladstone}%
\author[22]{Nicholas R. Golledge}%
\author[23]{Jonathan M. Gregory}%
\author[11]{Ralf Greve}%
\author[24]{Tore Hattermann}%
\author[7]{Matthew J. Hoffman}%
\author[25]{Angelika Humbert}%
\author[26]{Philippe Huybrechts}%
\author[27]{Nicolas C Jourdain}%
\author[28]{Thomas Kleiner}%
\author[29]{Peter Kuipers Munneke}%
\author[30]{Eric Yves Larour}%
\author[26]{Sebastien Le  clec'h}%
\author[1]{Victoria Lee}%
\author[31]{Gunter Leguy}%
\author[32]{William H. Lipscomb}%
\author[33]{Christopher M Little}%
\author[34]{Daniel P Lowry}%
\author[12]{Mathieu Morlighem}%
\author[17]{Isabel Nias}%
\author[35]{Frank Pattyn}%
\author[12]{Tyler Pelle}%
\author[7]{Stephen Price}%
\author[36]{Aurelien Quiquet}%
\author[6]{Ronja Reese}%
\author[28]{Martin Rückamp}%
\author[37]{Nicole -J. Schlegel}%
\author[30]{Helene Seroussi}%
\author[38]{Andrew Shepherd}%
\author[17]{Erika Simon}%
\author[39]{Donald A Slater}%
\author[40]{Robin Smith}%
\author[41]{Fiamma Straneo}%
\author[35]{Sainan Sun}%
\author[42]{Lev Tarasov}%
\author[43]{Luke Trusel}%
\author[26]{Jonas Van Breedam}%
\author[29]{Roderik S. W. van de Wal}%
\author[29]{Michiel R. van den Broeke}%
\author[6]{Ricarda Winkelmann}%
\author[44]{Chen Zhao}%
\author[9]{Tong Zhang}%
\author[45]{Thomas Zwinger}%
\affil[1]{University of Bristol}%
\affil[2]{University at Buffalo}%
\affil[3]{University of Tokyo}%
\affil[4]{Unknown}%
\affil[5]{Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University}%
\affil[6]{Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research}%
\affil[7]{Los Alamos National Laboratory (DOE)}%
\affil[8]{University of Alaska Fairbanks}%
\affil[9]{Los Alamos National Laboratory}%
\affil[10]{British Antarctic Survey}%
\affil[11]{Hokkaido University}%
\affil[12]{University of California, Irvine}%
\affil[13]{University of Maryland, College Park}%
\affil[14]{NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology}%
\affil[15]{CEA}%
\affil[16]{King's College London}%
\affil[17]{NASA Goddard Space Flight Center}%
\affil[18]{University of Liège}%
\affil[19]{Australian Antarctic Division}%
\affil[20]{NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway}%
\affil[21]{Arctic Centre, University of Lapland}%
\affil[22]{Victoria University of Wellington}%
\affil[23]{University of Reading}%
\affil[24]{Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway}%
\affil[25]{Alfred Wegner Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Science}%
\affil[26]{Vrije Universiteit Brussel}%
\affil[27]{French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS)}%
\affil[28]{Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research}%
\affil[29]{Utrecht University}%
\affil[30]{Jet Propulsion Laboratory}%
\affil[31]{National  Center  for  Atmospheric  Research}%
\affil[32]{National Center for Atmospheric Research}%
\affil[33]{Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.}%
\affil[34]{GNS Science}%
\affil[35]{Université Libre de Bruxelles}%
\affil[36]{Universite Paris-Saclay}%
\affil[37]{California Institute of Technology}%
\affil[38]{University of Leeds}%
\affil[39]{University of St Andrews}%
\affil[40]{University  of  Reading,}%
\affil[41]{UCSD}%
\affil[42]{Memorial University St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada}%
\affil[43]{Pennsylvania State University}%
\affil[44]{Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania}%
\affil[45]{CSC - IT Center for Science Ltd.}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained
from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project
greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we
use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple
ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project
for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at
2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls
within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly
increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in
higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6
forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall
counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.%
\end{abstract}%



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