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\begin{document}

\title{Changes in Flood Dynamics in the Lower Mekong River Basin Due to
Upstream Flow Regulation}



\author[1]{Yadu Pokhrel}%
\author[1]{Sanghoon Shin}%
\author[2]{Dai Yamazaki}%
\author[1]{Zihan Lin}%
\author[1]{Jiaguo Qi}%
\affil[1]{Michigan State University}%
\affil[2]{The University of Tokyo}%


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  \date{May 21, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The Mekong river is one of the most complex river systems in the world
that is shared by six nations in Southeast Asia. The river still remains
relatively undammed (most existing dams are in the tributaries and are
small), and its hydrology today is dominated by large natural flow
variations that support the highly productive agricultural and riverine
ecological systems; however, this is changing due to the alterations in
land use and construction of new dams both in the tributaries the
mainstream. Understanding the changes in surface water dynamics is
therefore crucial to provide realistic future predictions of changes in
downstream floodplain and riverine ecology due to the construction of
dams in the upstream. While the existing dams have caused little impact
on mainstream flows, those under construction and planned are likely to
cause severe and potentially permanent damage to downstream
hydro-agro-ecological systems, and adversely impact the livelihood of
millions. Here, using hydrodynamic model simulations (CaMa-Flood), we
show that the effects of flow regulation on downstream river-floodplain
dynamics are relatively predictable along the mainstream Mekong, but
flow regulations could potentially disrupt the flood dynamics in the
Tonle Sap River (TSR) and small distributaries in the Mekong Delta.
Results suggest that TSR flow reversal could cease if the Mekong flood
pulse is dampened by 50\% and delayed by one-month. While flood
occurrence in the vicinity of the Tonle Sap Lake and middle reach of the
delta could increase due to enhanced low flow, it could decrease by up
to five months in other areas due to dampened high flow, particularly
during dry years. Further, areas flooded for less than five months and
over six months are likely to be impacted significantly by flow
regulations, but those flooded for 5-6 months could be impacted the
least.%
\end{abstract}%



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