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\begin{document}

\title{Overconfidence in climate overshoot}



\author[1,2,3]{Carl-Friedrich Schleussner}%
\author[1,2,3]{Gaurav Ganti}%
\author[1,2]{Quentin Lejeune}%
\author[4]{Biqing Zhu}%
\author[1,5]{Peter Pfleiderer}%
\author[2,6]{Ruben Prütz}%
\author[4]{Philippe Ciais}%
\author[7,8]{Thomas L Frölicher}%
\author[2,6]{Sabine Fuss}%
\author[3]{Thomas Gasser}%
\author[1,3]{Matthew J Gidden}%
\author[9,10]{Chahan M Kropf}%
\author[11]{Robin Lamboll}%
\author[1,2,4]{Rosanne Martyr Koller}%
\author[12]{Fabien Maussion}%
\author[13]{Jamie W Mccaughey}%
\author[3]{Malte Meinshausen}%
\author[5]{Matthias Mengel}%
\author[3]{Zebedee Nicholls}%
\author[9]{Yann Quilcaille}%
\author[14]{Benjamin Sanderson}%
\author[9]{Sonia Seneviratne}%
\author[5]{Jana Sillmann}%
\author[3,15,16]{Christopher J Smith}%
\author[1,2]{Emily Theokritoff}%
\author[17]{Rachel Warren}%
\author[3,18]{Joeri Rogelj}%
\author[19]{Fabrice Lacroix}%
\author[19]{Jeff Price}%
\author[19]{Norman Steinert}%
\affil[1]{Climate Analytics}%
\affil[2]{Geography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin}%
\affil[3]{International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)}%
\affil[4]{Laboratoire des Sciences du Climate et de l'Environnement LSCE}%
\affil[5]{Research Unit for Sustainability and Climate Risks, University of Hamburg}%
\affil[6]{Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)}%
\affil[7]{Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Department of Environmental Systems Science, University of Bern}%
\affil[8]{Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland}%
\affil[9]{Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland}%
\affil[10]{Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland}%
\affil[11]{Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, UK }%
\affil[12]{Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria             }%
\affil[13]{Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, ETH Zürich}%
\affil[14]{CICERO, Oslo, Norway}%
\affil[15]{Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK}%
\affil[16]{School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK}%
\affil[17]{Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK}%
\affil[18]{Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment and Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK}%
\affil[19]{Affiliation not available}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 10, 2024}


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