Term Definition Example
Ecological forecast A prediction of a future event with uncertainty A forecast of the distribution and density of the invasive spongy moth for 1 month into the future which includes uncertainty
Forecast index A forecast output that translated into thresholds which are meaningful for decision-making 22% chance of spongy moth outbreak in a given location
Forecast output Future predictions with uncertainty generated using a model Spongy moth density is 24 individuals/km2 ± 4 individuals/km2
Forecast user Anyone who can use a forecast to gain understanding or make a decision Scientist studying oak tree populations, Homeowner, etc.
Forecast decision use A specific way in which a forecast is used to inform a decision A forecast of the density of invasive spongy moth guiding a decision about buying moth insecticide
Forecast decision use cases
Categories of forecast users defined by their decision use needs (adapted from Raftery 2016)
Casual user: Users who do not require probabilistic forecasts; e.g., a park visitor interested in which areas within the park are affected by spongy moth Practitioner: Users who need an overall idea of uncertainty; e.g., homeowner deciding to protect oak trees on their land in an area affected by spongy moth Decision analyst: Users who require detailed information about uncertainty; e.g., a natural resource manager deciding which area of a park to treat for spongy moth invasion
Structured decision-making
A formalized method of analyzing a decision by dissecting its components
PrOACT is a structured decision-making tool which guides users through identifying and analyze the following components of a decision: Problem
Objective
Alternatives
Consequences
Trade-offs