Term |
Definition |
Example |
Ecological forecast |
A prediction of a future event with uncertainty |
A forecast of the distribution and density of the invasive spongy moth
for 1 month into the future which includes uncertainty |
Forecast index |
A forecast output that translated into thresholds which
are meaningful for decision-making |
22% chance of spongy moth outbreak
in a given location |
Forecast output |
Future predictions with uncertainty generated using a
model |
Spongy moth density is 24 individuals/km2 ± 4
individuals/km2
|
Forecast user |
Anyone who can use a forecast to gain understanding or
make a decision |
Scientist studying oak tree populations, Homeowner,
etc. |
Forecast decision use |
A specific way in which a forecast is used to
inform a decision |
A forecast of the density of invasive spongy moth
guiding a decision about buying moth insecticide |
Forecast decision use cases
|
Categories of forecast users defined by their decision use needs
(adapted from Raftery 2016)
|
Casual user: Users who do not require probabilistic forecasts; e.g., a
park visitor interested in which areas within the park are affected by
spongy moth
Practitioner: Users who need an overall idea of uncertainty; e.g.,
homeowner deciding to protect oak trees on their land in an area
affected by spongy moth
Decision analyst: Users who require detailed information about
uncertainty; e.g., a natural resource manager deciding which area of a
park to treat for spongy moth invasion
|
Structured decision-making
|
A formalized method of analyzing a decision by dissecting its
components
|
PrOACT is a structured decision-making tool which guides users through
identifying and analyze the following components of a decision:
Problem
Objective
Alternatives
Consequences
Trade-offs
|