Student understanding of foundational ecological forecasting
We found that student understanding of foundational ecological forecasting concepts increased after module completion (Figures 3, 4; Table 4). Students were significantly more likely to correctly define an ecological forecast after completing the module, with an increase from 27% pre-module to 78% of students answering correctly post-module (p < 0.001; Figure 3a). Student understanding of how forecast uncertainty changes over time also increased from 52% to 58% after module completion, although this increase was not statistically significant (p = 0.16; Figure 3b, Table 4).
We saw a significant increase in the total number of benefits of ecological forecasts identified by students after module completion (p < 0.001; Figure 4c, Table 4). Certain benefits were more likely to be mentioned than others in the student responses. Specifically, students were more likely to identify how forecasting can be used for facilitating decision-making (which was included in 13% of pre-module responses and 35% of post-module responses), and predicting a future event (included in 47% of pre-module and 59% of post-module responses; Figure 4a, Table 4). Correspondingly, the number of “I don’t know” responses to the question about forecast benefits significantly decreased from 38% to 8% after module completion (Figure 4a, Table 4). Students also identified other benefits of ecological forecasting in both the pre- and post-survey (e.g., benefits related to management or policy, as well as increased understanding of ecological systems or models), although these themes were not significantly more prevalent in student responses after module completion (Figure 4a).
Overall, student responses to the open-ended, qualitative question about forecast benefits showed an expansion in their understanding of how ecological forecasts can be used. Several students provided fairly simplistic answers about the benefits of forecasts in their pre-module responses and then more nuanced and complex answers in their post-module responses. For example, one student answered “Limiting the effects of climate change” in their pre-module response as a forecast benefit, while their response after module completion showed a more in-depth understanding of forecast applications: “Ecological forecasting allows people to better understand how environmental conditions will change and how that will impact them.” Another student similarly wrote in their pre-survey response to the forecast benefit question, “Maybe it’ll show the effects of climate change in response to what we do now?” and then expanded to “They [forecasts] can assist in planning future events as well as management or conservation for at risk areas” in their post-survey response.