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\title{Intraseasonal Sea-Level Variability in the Persian Gulf}



\author[1,1]{Christopher G Piecuch}%
\author[2,2]{Ichiro Fukumori}%
\author[3,3]{Rui M Ponte}%
\affil[1]{Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution}%
\affil[2]{Jet Propulsion Laboratory}%
\affil[3]{Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.}%


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  \date{May 25, 2024}


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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Satellite observations are used to establish the dominant magnitudes,
scales, and mechanisms of intraseasonal variability in ocean dynamic sea
level (\selectlanguage{greek}ζ\selectlanguage{english}) in the Persian Gulf over 2002-2015. Empirical orthogonal
function (EOF) analysis applied to altimetry data reveals a basin-wide,
single-signed intraseasonal fluctuation that contributes importantly to
\selectlanguage{greek}ζ \selectlanguage{english}variance in the Persian Gulf at monthly to decadal timescales. An EOF
analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations
over the same period returns a similar large-scale mode of intraseasonal
variability, suggesting that the basin-wide intraseasonal \selectlanguage{greek}ζ \selectlanguage{english}variation
has a predominantly barotropic nature. A linear barotropic theory is
developed to interpret the data. The theory represents
Persian-Gulf-average \selectlanguage{greek}ζ \selectlanguage{english}() in terms of local freshwater flux, barometric
pressure, and wind stress forcing, as well as \selectlanguage{greek}ζ \selectlanguage{english}at the boundary in the
Gulf of Oman. The theory is tested using a multiple linear regression
with these freshwater flux, barometric pressure, wind stress, and
boundary \selectlanguage{greek}ζ \selectlanguage{english}quantities as input, and as output. The regression explains
70\%+/-9\% (95\% confidence interval) of the intraseasonal variance.
Numerical values of regression coefficients computed empirically from
the data are consistent with theoretical expectations from first
principles. Results point to a substantial non-isostatic response to
surface loading. The Gulf of Oman \selectlanguage{greek}ζ \selectlanguage{english}boundary condition shows lagged
correlation with \selectlanguage{greek}ζ \selectlanguage{english}upstream along the Indian Subcontinent, Maritime
Continent, and equatorial Indian Ocean, suggesting a large-scale
Indian-Ocean influence on intraseasonal variation mediated by coastal
and equatorial waves, and hinting at potential predictability. This
study highlights the value of GRACE for understanding sea level in an
understudied marginal sea.%
\end{abstract}%



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