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\begin{document}

\title{Hypoxic Blackwater Events - Identifying High Risk Catchments in
Estuaries Now and Under Future Climate Scenarios}



\author[1]{Katrina Waddington}%
\author[2]{Alice Harrison}%
\author[3]{Duncan Rayner}%
\author[2]{Toby Tucker}%
\author[4]{William Glamore}%
\affil[1]{University Of NSW Sydney}%
\affil[2]{University of NSW, Sydney}%
\affil[3]{Water Research Laboratory, UNSW Sydney}%
\affil[4]{University of New South Wales}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 28, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Hypoxic blackwater events occur worldwide, affecting inland and coastal
waters. These events have been exacerbated by man-made floodplain
drainage, leading to large-scale fish kills and ecological degradation.
This paper presents a new method to identify estuarine catchment areas
that are most likely to generate hypoxic conditions. The method uses
established blackwater risk factors, including vegetation type,
inundation extent and duration, ground-truthed in eastern Australia. A
catchment is at higher risk of blackwater generation if (i) it is
located where floodwaters are high and/or drainage is impeded, (ii) the
site topography includes an extensive, low-lying floodplain; and/or
(iii) the land-use and environmental characteristics have a high
deoxygenation potential. Blackwater impacts in an estuary are determined
by the floodplain connectivity with the estuary, and the discharge
characteristics of the catchment drainage system. Where multiple,
proximate catchments have similar drainage conditions, compounding
blackwater plumes can overwhelm the assimilation capacity of the
estuary. Climate change may significantly increase the volume and
frequency of blackwater events in estuarine environments as a result of
reduced drainage due to sea level rise, higher temperatures, and more
intense and sporadic rainfall events. It is recommended that management
measures be introduced to mitigate the effects of climate change and
avoid further widespread hypoxic blackwater events.%
\end{abstract}%



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