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\begin{document}

\title{A species distribution model of the giant kelp \emph{Macrocystis
pyrifera}: worldwide changes and a focus on the Southeast Pacific}



\author[1]{Daniel Gonzalez-Aragon}%
\author[2]{Marcelo Rivadeneira}%
\author[3]{Carlos Lara}%
\author[1]{Felipe Torres}%
\author[4]{Julio Vasquez}%
\author[5]{Bernardo Broitman}%
\affil[1]{Universidad Catolica de la Santisima Concepcion - Campus San Andres}%
\affil[2]{Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas}%
\affil[3]{Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción - Campus San Andrés}%
\affil[4]{Departamento de Biología Marina Facultad de Ciencias del Mar Universidad Católica del Norte}%
\affil[5]{Universidad Adolfo Ibanez Campus Vina del Mar}%


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  \date{June 17, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Aim: Worldwide climate-driven shifts in the distribution of species is
of special concern when it involves habitat-forming species. In the
coastal environment, large Laminarian algae -- kelps -- form key coastal
ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps,
\emph{Macrocystis pyrifera} is the most widely distributed
habitat-forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This
study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional
changes on a global scale and use them to predict both future habitat
suitability. Location: Global Methods: Using species distribution models
(SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of \emph{M.
pyrifera} under different emission scenarios with a focus on the
Southeastern Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations
to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution
across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables
and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Results: Minimum
sea surface temperature was the single most important variable
explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for \emph{M.
pyrifera}. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed
a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was
detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast
Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of -17.08\selectlanguage{ngerman}°S of latitude
for 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat
suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to -27.83°S in
Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is
predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation.
Main conclusions: The loss of habitat suitability will take place
worldwide: significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem
functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are
a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio-ecological systems of the
Southeastern Pacific.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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\verb`SDM_Macrocystis_pyrifera.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/610519/articles/670044-a-species-distribution-model-of-the-giant-kelp-macrocystis-pyrifera-worldwide-changes-and-a-focus-on-the-southeast-pacific}

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