Figure 4: Predictions of the strength of rarity shifts for Shannon entropy derived from Generalized Additive Models. A) When selection is close to zero, rarity shifts are close to zero. Selection values further away from zero lead to negative rarity shifts. Blue lines indicate predictions, dashes indicate 95 % confidence intervals, and grey vertical bars indicate observations. B) When immigration’s effects on diversity are close to zero rarity shifts are close to zero. When immigration’s effects on diversity are more extreme, rarity shifts tend to be slightly positive.