2.5 Future land use simulation
PLUS model is a new land use simulation model based on cellular
automata, which has advantages in studying the causes of land use change
and dynamically simulating the changes of various land uses, especially
forest and grassland patches (Sun et al., 2023; J. Wang et al., 2022).
By extracting the samples of the mutual transformation of various types
of land use between the two time periods of land use data for training,
the future land use is simulated based on the transformation
probability. The random forest algorithm calculated the expansion and
driving factors of various land use types to obtain the development
probability and the contribution of driving factors to the expansion of
various land use types in this period. And we combined with the
generation of random patches and the transition matrix, determined
future land use (Sun et al., 2023; Qiao et al., 2013). The PLUS Model
mainly includes Land Expansion Analysis Strategy (LEAS) and Cellular
Automata Model Based on Muiti-type Random Patch Seeds (CARS). The module
calculation formula can be found in relevant literature (Ji et al.,
2023; J. Wu & Wang, 2022; Liang et al., 2021).