2.5 Future land use simulation
PLUS model is a new land use simulation model based on cellular automata, which has advantages in studying the causes of land use change and dynamically simulating the changes of various land uses, especially forest and grassland patches (Sun et al., 2023; J. Wang et al., 2022). By extracting the samples of the mutual transformation of various types of land use between the two time periods of land use data for training, the future land use is simulated based on the transformation probability. The random forest algorithm calculated the expansion and driving factors of various land use types to obtain the development probability and the contribution of driving factors to the expansion of various land use types in this period. And we combined with the generation of random patches and the transition matrix, determined future land use (Sun et al., 2023; Qiao et al., 2013). The PLUS Model mainly includes Land Expansion Analysis Strategy (LEAS) and Cellular Automata Model Based on Muiti-type Random Patch Seeds (CARS). The module calculation formula can be found in relevant literature (Ji et al., 2023; J. Wu & Wang, 2022; Liang et al., 2021).