Fig. 2: The twelve constructed scenarios tested with Approximate
Bayesian Computation. In these scenarios, t# represents the time scale
in number of generations and N# represents the effective population
size during the time period (e.g., 0–t1, t1–t2).
These 12 scenarios constructed by us are the ones among a multitude of
pre-tested scenarios that most closely correspond to the possible
migration dynamics.
For each scenario, 100,000 simulations were run. The models were
compared using the logistic regression method, and the scenario with the
highest posterior probability was determined to be the most realistic
one.
To obtain the calibrated years before present (BP), the number of
generations has to be multiplied by a given generation time. In the
present study, the generation time of Larix is set to 25 years,
since larch trees can start reproducing when they reach an age of 20–30
years (Semerikov et al. 2013).