A scoring model
To create a simple score for mortality in COVİD 19 patients forming only
by host risk factors and facilitate ıts clinical use, a scoring model
was established Co-AMSCA (A ge, M ale, S moking
history, C omorbidity, ACE inh ) with scores from 0 to 7
points (Table 3). The cut-off value of this scoring system (including
only host risk factors), which determines the mortality risk in
patients, was 3.5 points with 88.4% sensitivity and 65.5 % specificity
(AUC = 0.761, 95% CI 0.697-0.826, P < .001) (Figure
1). The mortality risk in patients with a Co-AMSCA mortality
score above 3.5 points was 7.8 times higher than patients with lower
than 3.5 (OR = 7.8; P < .001).
When the predictive power of each risk factors in the Co-AMSCA scoring
model for mortality risk was evaluated by multivariate logistic
regression analysis, older age and smoking (smoker/ex-smoker) were found
to be important risk factors for mortality (OR = 12.09; 95% CI
2,564-57,054 P =0.004 and OR = 3.1; 95% CI 1,381-7,295; P = 0.007,
respectively) (Table 4).