4.4. Scope and model limitations
While the predictive models employed in the study exhibited strong performance in delineating the climate niche of the species under examination, certain constraints within the predictions should be acknowledged. It is essential to recognize that the actual niche occupied by the species tends to be more confined when compared to its potential niche.
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This discrepancy arises from the fact that climatic variables, while pivotal, do not exclusively dictate a species’ ecological niche. Additional factors, notably biotic and edaphic elements, introduce constraints and exert subtle influences on the habitat distribution of a given species.
On a macro scale, it remains evident that climatic factors remain the primary drivers behind species distribution. Nevertheless, it is imperative to note that our predictive models exclusively relied on climatic variables, excluding other biotic and abiotic factors from consideration. Consequently, our models may not offer a comprehensive prediction of the potential impacts of climate change on the future range of the species in question.
To illustrate, human activities, including but not limited to land use alterations, overgrazing, and urbanization, will wield substantial influence over species distribution in the future. These activities introduce additional complexities and limitations to the future range of the species, which are not accounted for by our models. Top of Form
Furthermore, uncertainties surrounding future greenhouse gas concentrations could undermine our predictions’ validity.
In summary, while the predictive models employed in this study displayed commendable accuracy in delineating the climate niche of the species, it is essential to acknowledge the inherent limitations stemming from the exclusion of crucial biotic and abiotic factors. These omissions underscore the complexity of forecasting the impact of climate change on the species’ future range, especially in the face of evolving human activities and uncertain environmental variables.
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