Climatic Impact on Pangolin Distribution Dynamics
Projections derived from the ensemble model under the SSP1-2.6 scenario
suggest a sustained and increasing presence of Chinese pangolin habitats
in the northwestern areas of Mingxi County through the period 2021 to
2040 (Figure 4A). The SSP5-8.5 scenario forecasts corroborate these
trends (details presented in Figure 4 and the Supplementary Table).
Under the SSP126 framework, the suitable habitat for the pangolin is
projected to undergo an expansion of 378 km², while simultaneously
experiencing a contraction of 110 km² by 2040. The contraction is
primarily forecasted in western locales, whereas eastern regions,
particularly the eastern parts of Xiayang Township and Hufang Town, are
anticipated to become focal zones of habitat expansion (Figure 4B).
DISCUSSION
This research represented a pioneering assessment of the distribution
and conservation status of Manis pentadactyla at a detailed county-level
scale, integrating field surveys, remote sensing data, and ecological
modeling. This novel approach established a research paradigm for
conducting targeted studies on endangered species such as the Chinese
pangolin at the county level and devising specific conservation
strategies. Our findings indicated that while current protected areas
covered 50% of suitable habitats for the pangolin, a significant
portion of highly and moderately suitable habitats remained
under-protected. This underscored the urgency of implementing immediate
conservation actions in prioritized administrative villages.