The wild tending framework of medicinal plants constructed based on
Biomod2 and PLUS model: A case study of Thesium chinense Turcz. in China
Abstract
Wild medicinal plants dominate the market of Traditonal Chinese Medicine
(TCM). However, the intensification of human activities and ecological
deterioration have caused a gradual depletion or extinction of wild
medicinal plant resources in China. Scientific planning of wild tending
areas is a priority to realize the sustainable utilization of wild
medicinal plant resources. Thesium chinense, a known “plant
antibiotic”, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a
sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we combined three
atmospheric circulation models and four common socio-economic approaches
(SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to explore the main
environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. chinense and the
changes in the suitable area under the complete niche based on the
Biomod2 package. The PLUS model was used to predict and analyze the land
use change trend in the climate-stable areas of T. chinense in the
future. And the wild tending areas of T. chinense were planned using
ZONATION software. In the next hundred years, the climate-stable areas
of T. chinense in China will mainly be distributed in humid and subhumid
area, and the natural habitat areas of T. chinense in this region will
decrease year by year. Hot spot analysis showed that Qiqihar, Chifeng,
Zunyi, and other counties were the most suitable for the wild tending of
T. chinense. These results can provide a comprehensive research
framework for wild tending planning of T. chinense and other medicinal
plants.